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Abstract:The May unemployment rate announced by the United States last Friday was originally 13.3%, much lower than the expected 19.7%. However, the US Department of Labor soon corrected the data and announced that the accurate figure should be 16.6%. Even more surprising was May's Nonfarm Payroll, which beat both last month's data and estimation significantly to reach 2,509,000.
The May unemployment rate announced by the United States last Friday was originally 13.3%, much lower than the expected 19.7%. However, the US Department of Labor soon corrected the data and announced that the accurate figure should be 16.6%. Even more surprising was May's Nonfarm Payroll, which beat both last month's data and estimation significantly to reach 2,509,000.
Driven by strong employment data, the three major US stock indexes rose by 2.06%-3.15%. It is worth discussing that the past 3 weeks had seen USD Index under pressure as the improving stock market cooled market's risk aversion. But the situation was reversed last Friday, and I believe the reason that Friday's rising stock market stopped weighing down the USDX was that the financial market began to shift its focus from risk aversion to the recovery of US economy, which significantly reduced the Fed's pressure of conducting infinite QE. In that case, the surge in US stocks no longer suppressed USDX, but rather supported it due to the prospect for the Fed to reduce QE scale.
On the contrary, the European Central Bank sharply stepped up its QE by 600 billion euros last Thursday. And if the forex market faces the Fed's QE reduction on one hand and ECB's QE expansion on the other, the US dollar index will have the opportunity to rally from the recent slump, while the euro may expect falling back from its peak.
It is estimated that the US dollar index has a chance to rebound to the 98.27 mark and if it successfully breaks upward, it confirms the dollar's on a strong rally and may further rise towards the 101 level. For the euro, it is estimated that this retracement will challenge the 1.1147 mark. Similarly, if this level is breached, the euro will again weaken against the dollar.
Wednesday's Fed policy decision meeting, usually regarded as a routine business in the financial markets, is worth more attention amid the latest strong employment data and the recent sharp rebound in U.S. stocks. Fed Chairman Powell has little pressure to maintain dovish stance and may even turn slightly hawkish instead in his remarks, which can give the US dollar index a strong rebound momentum.
[About The Author]
Since 1987, Jasper Lo has been engaged in the financial industry (forex, futures and gold) for more than 32 years and holds forex R.O., securities and futures broker licenses. Mr Lo is an expert in trading forex, precious metals and commodity futures and an basic and technical analyst.
Over the years, Mr Lo won many individual and team sales champion awards, as well as outstanding employee awards. He was invited, as a guest mentor, to the University of Hong Kong, Guangdong Ocean University and Guangzhou Jinan University. And he was also appointed as the chief training consultant by Hantang Securities and Dongguan Securities in China.
Mr Los experience as guest of honor invited by media including Chinese and English newspapers and columnist:
-Guest of honor invited by TVB New Channels such as Finance Channel, Forex Focus, Global Watch
-Guest of honor invited by Now Finance Channel - Forex Reports
-Guest of honor invited by i-CABLE Finance Info Channel - Forex Opportunities
-Guest of honor invited by ViuTV - Investor Smarter Group
-Columnist of Finance and Forex Market of Ming Pao
-Presenter of Finance and Forex Forecast of Ming Pao
-Presenter of Investment 36 Stratagem and Technical Analysis in 1 Min of Ming Bao Finance
-Appointed lecturer of Ming Pao Investment Seminar and Paid Course
-Author of the best seller Investment 36 Stratagem
-Columnist of Forex Expert, Forex Analyst, Marathon Weekly of ET Net
-Guest of honor of Open Good Morning of ET Net
-Guest of honor of Metro Finance Channel - Market Opening, Instant Market Fighting, Guangdong-Hong Kong Finance, Finances Power, Market Analysis
-Guest of honor of New Era of Investment of RTHK
-Columnist of Capital Commodities of Capital Weekly
-Guest Presenter of Wang Guanyi Online Finance Channel - Fund and Commercial Bond
-Columnist of Wealthub Finance and Investment Smart Platform of Enrich Culture
-Guest presenter of Weekly Investment in the World of Enrich Culture
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