EUR/USD on Track to Clear Monthly Opening Range Ahead of ECB Meeting

EUR/USD trades above the 50-Day SMA (0.9893) as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, and the exchange rate may stage a larger recovery ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting if it clears the opening range for October.

欧元/美元交投于 50 日均线 (0.9893) 上方，形成一系列更高的高点和低点，如果清除开盘区间，汇率可能在欧洲央行 (ecb) 会议前出现更大的反弹。十月。

EUR/USD on Track to Threaten Monthly Opening Range Ahead of ECB Meeting

欧元/美元有望在欧洲央行会议前威胁月度开盘区间

EUR/USD approaches the monthly high (1.0000) as the Greenback weakens against all of its major counterparts, and a break above the October opening range may push the exchange rate towards the September high (1.0198) as the exchange rate appears to be reversing course following the failed attempt to test the yearly low (0.9536).

随着美元兑所有主要货币走弱，欧元/美元接近月高点（1.0000），突破 10 月开盘区间可能会将汇率推向 9 月高点（1.0198），因为汇率似乎正在逆转在尝试测试年度低点（0.9536）失败之后。

Looking ahead, the ECB meeting may keep EUR/USD afloat as the Governing Council is expected to deliver another 75bp rate hike, and President Christine Lagarde and Co. may continue to prepare Euro Area households and businesses for higher interest rates as the central bank acknowledges that “is likely to stay above our target for an extended period.”

展望未来，欧洲央行会议可能会维持欧元兑美元汇率，因为预计管理委员会将再次加息 75 个基点，而且正如央行承认的那样，总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德 (christine lagarde) 和 co. 可能会继续为欧元区家庭和企业准备更高的利率“很可能会在很长一段时间内保持在我们的目标之上。”

However, the weakening outlook for growth may put pressure on the ECB to winddown its hiking-cycle as the Euro Area is expected to “stagnate later in the year and in the first quarter of 2023,” and a dovish rate hike may ultimately drag on EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve pursues a restrictive policy.

然而，由于欧元区预计“在今年晚些时候和 2023 年第一季度停滞不前”，增长前景疲软可能会给欧洲央行带来压力，以结束其加息周期，而温和的加息可能最终会拖累由于美联储奉行限制性政策，欧元/美元。

Until then, EUR/USD may continue to appreciate as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, and a further advance in the exchange rate may fuel the recent flip in recent flip in retail sentiment like the behavior seen earlier this month.

在那之前，欧元/美元可能会继续升值，因为它会形成一系列更高的高点和低点，而汇率的进一步上涨可能会推动近期零售情绪的反转，就像本月早些时候看到的那样。

The IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) report shows 48.48% of traders are currently net-long EUR/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long standing at 1.06 to 1.

ig 客户情绪 (igcs) 报告显示，目前有 48.48% 的交易者净多头欧元/美元，空头与多头的比率为 1.06 比 1。

The number of traders net-long is 6.63% lower than yesterday and 12.19% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.60% higher than yesterday and 8.30% higher from last week. The decline in net-long position comes as EUR/USD trades to fresh weekly high (0.9977), while the rise in net-short interest has fueled the flip in retail sentiment as 56.55% of traders were net-long the pair last week.

净多头较昨日减少6.63%，较上周减少12.19%，净空头较昨日增加8.60%，较上周增加8.30%。净多头头寸下降之际，欧元/美元交易至新的每周高点（0.9977），而净空头兴趣的增加推动了零售情绪的转变，因为上周有 56.55% 的交易者净多头。

With that said, EUR/USD may attempt to retrace the decline from the September high (1.0198) as if it clears the opening range for October, but a dovish ECB rate hike may drag on the exchange rate as the central bank shows little interest in carrying out a restrictive policy.

话虽如此，欧元兑美元可能会试图从 9 月高点（1.0198）回撤，好像它已经清除了 10 月的开盘区间，但欧洲央行温和的加息可能会拖累汇率，因为央行对实施限制性政策。

• EUR/USD trades above the 50-Day SMA (0.9893) as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, and the exchange rate may no longer respond to the negative slope in the moving average as it appears to be reversing course following the failed attempt to test the yearly low (0.9536).

  欧元/美元在 50 日均线 (0.9893) 上方交易，因为它形成了一系列更高的高点和低点，并且汇率可能不再对移动平均线的负斜率做出反应，因为它似乎正在逆转失败后的走势尝试测试年度低点（0.9536）。

• In turn, a move above the monthly high (1.000) may push EUR/USD towards 1.0070 (161.8% expansion), with a break above the September high (1.0198) bringing the 1.0220 (161.8% expansion) area on the radar.

  反过来，突破月高点 (1.000) 可能将欧元/美元推向 1.0070 (扩大 161.8%)，突破 9 月高点 (1.0198) 后，将关注 1.0220 (扩大 161.8%) 区域。

• However, failure to clear the opening range for October may push EUR/USD back below the 0.9910 (78.6% retracement) to 0.9950 (50% expansion) region, with a move below the monthly low (0.9632) bringing the yearly low (0.9536) back on the radar.

  然而，未能清除 10 月份的开盘区间可能会将欧元/美元推低至 0.9910（78.6% 回撤位）至 0.9950（50% 扩张）区域下方，跌破月度低点（0.9632）将带来年度低点（0.9536）回到雷达上。