简体中文
繁體中文
English
Pусский
日本語
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Bahasa Indonesia
Español
हिन्दी
Filippiiniläinen
Français
Deutsch
Português
Türkçe
한국어
العربية
Abstract:-New Zealand's GDP set to rebound 0.5% QoQ in Q1 2021. -Supply shock is seen threatening economic recovery. -The kiwi appears vulnerable on the FOMC outcome and NZ GDP release.
New Zealands (NZ) economy is expected to see a revival in the economic recovery or a missed technical recession in the first quarter of 2021 after witnessing a contraction in the final quarter of the last year.
Even though the impact of the pandemic overseas continues to threaten the economic growth outlook, a closer look reveals that the surge in commodities prices, the country‘s rampant housing market and capacity constraints emerge as the factors affecting the economy’s performance.
The South Pacific nations GDP rate is expected to rebound by 0.5% QoQ in the three months to March vs. a 1% contraction seen in the fourth quarter of 2020. On an annualized basis, the economy is seen growing by 0.9% in Q1 vs. a -0.9% recorded in the previous quarter.
NZ economy just avoids a technical recessionDespite New Zealands relative success in combating the coronavirus crisis, the economy is not out of the woods yet, with the recovery quite uneven and uncertain.
Economic indicators remain upbeat, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealands (RBNZ) inflation expectation accelerating alongside the robust rise in the first quarter retail sales.
Further, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) revealed that beyond the weaker starting point for GDP growth, the near-term growth outlook has been revised up.
Christina Leung, Principal Economist at NZIER, predicts a 1% expansion, adding that we realize that is at the higher end of the range of forecasts out there, but many of the indicators of activity in sectors such as construction, wholesale and retail trade are pretty strong for the March quarter.
However, there are significant factors undermining the turnaround such as a slowdown in international tourism due to the closed borders, capacity constraints and supply bottlenecks.
Biting capacity constraints (such as difficulty finding labor, global shipping delays and supply bottlenecks) have arguably become a larger constraint on activity than the demand and income shock, according to the ANZ economists.
In light of the mixed outlook, the RBNZ has predicted a 0.6% drop in GDP for the quarter. Therefore, a downside surprise to the GDP may have little to no impact on the central banks monetary policy outlook.
Disappointing GDP, hawkish FOMC to snap kiwis wingsNZD/USD is bouncing off two-month lows on 0.7100 in the runup to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) showdown. The pullback can be seen as closing out of short positions ahead of the all-important FOMC monetary policy decision and the NZ Q1 GDP release, both slated for release on Wednesday.
If the Fed turns out to be explicitly hawkish, as widely expected, it could dent the overall market sentiment while lifting the US dollar‘s demand. In such a case, the influence of the NZ GDP report on the kiwi could likely be limited, as the persisting risk trend and dollar’s moves could be the main market motors.
Only a big beat on the NZ GDP figures could help reverse the recent downtrend in the kiwi, with a test of the powerful resistance around 0.7190 inevitable. However, or a terrible report alongside likely hawkish hints from the Fed could knock off the rates back towards 0.7100 and 0.7045 support area.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
We are thrilled to announce that Easy Trading Online has been awarded the “Best Forex Broker - Asia” at the Wiki Finance EXPO 2024 Hong Kong! This prestigious recognition underscores our commitment to excellence and dedication to providing top-notch services to our clients.
On the evening of April 28, Easy Trading Online proudly received the 'Most Trusted Forex Broker' award at the BrokersView 2024, hosted by Fastbull. This accolade is a testament to our steadfast dedication to providing reliable and superior trading services in the forex and CFD brokerage industry.
The BrokersView Expo Dubai 2024 is a premier event in the financial industry, bringing together top financial institutions, brokers, and technology providers from around the globe. As the Gold Sponsor of BrokersView Expo Dubai 2024, Easy Trading Online took the opportunity to showcase our latest products, service technologies, and core competitive advantages in the forex trading field.
On the 23rd of March, the Easy Trading Online family had the distinguished pleasure of being the Table Sponsor at the prestigious Wiki Gala Night. As we reflect on the event, it’s with a sense of pride and joy that we share the highlights and our takeaways from an evening that was as inspiring as it was splendid.