Daily Forex Analysis - 16th June 2021

USD Overview (16 June 2021)

Yesterday, USD strengthened against most major currencies except EUR, JPY and CHF.

The retail sales m/m data released yesterday indicated a decline in consumer spending in May as more people are spending less on goods. Instead, they are spending more on travel as restrictions get lifted.

- Core Retail Sales m/m (Actual: -0.7%, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.0% revised from -0.8%)

- Retail Sales m/m (Actual: -1.3%, Forecast: -0.6%, Previous: 0.9% revised from 0.0%)

The U.S. housing data will be released later at 2030 (GMT+8).

- Building Permits (Forecast: 1.73M, Previous: 1.76M)

- Housing Starts (Forecast: 1.64M, Previous: 1.57M)

The Federal Reserve will be announcing their monetary policy decision tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8). It is expected that they will be holding monetary policy unchanged at its current configuration. With the continued increase in inflation, pay attention to what the Fed has to comment on this, specifically, take note of whether the committee is going to continue downplaying the inflation spike as transitory. The central bank will also be releasing their quarterly economic projection materials. With the recent releases of decent economic data, the Fed may revise their economic projection upwards. Furthermore, take note if any committee members are expecting an earlier hike in interest rate from the dot plot.

A press conference will be held at 0230 (GMT+8). During this time, volatility is expected in USD.

NZD/USD Outlook (16 June 2021)

Overall, NZD/USD is trending downwards. Recently, NZD/USD bounced off the support zone of 0.71000.

The New Zealand GDP q/q data (Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: -1.0%) will be released tomorrow at 0645 (GMT+8).

NZD/USDs next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.72850.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of NZD/USD up until the U.S. FOMC meeting tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8).

AUD/USD Outlook (16 June 2021)

Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. Recently, AUD/USD broke below the key level of 0.77.

The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will be speaking tomorrow at 0810 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in AUD.

The Australian employment data will be released tomorrow at 0930 (GMT+8).

- Employment Change (Forecast: 30.5K, Previous: -30.6K)

- Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 5.5%, Previous: 5.5%)

AUD/USDs next support zone is at 0.75500 and the next resistance zone is at 0.78000.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD up until the U.S. FOMC meeting tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8).

USD/JPY Outlook (16 June 2021)

Overall, USD/JPY is trending upwards.

Currently, USD/JPY is testing to break above the key level of 110. Its next support zone is at 108.500 and the next resistance zone is at 110.800.

If USD/JPY breaks above the key level of 110, look for short-term buying opportunities up until the U.S. FOMC meeting tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8).

EUR/USD Outlook (16 June 2021)

Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced off the resistance zone of 1.21500.

EUR/USDs next support zone is at 1.19700 and the next resistance zone is at 1.21500.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/USD up until the U.S. FOMC meeting tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8).

GBP/USD Outlook (16 June 2021)

Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD broke below the key level of 1.41.

The UK employment data released yesterday indicated an overall positive outlook in the UK jobs market. The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits declined instead of an expected increase.

- Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 5.6%, Forecast: 4.9%, Previous: 4.3% revised from 4.0%)

- Claimant Count Change (Actual: -92.6K, Forecast: 25.0K, Previous: -55.8K revised from -15.1K)

- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.7%, Forecast: 4.7%, Previous: 4.8%)

The UK CPI y/y data will be released later at 1400 (GMT+8).

- CPI y/y (Forecast: 1.8%, Previous: 1.5%)

- Core CPI y/y (Forecast: 1.5%, Previous: 1.3%)

Currently, GBP/USD is moving up towards the key level of 1.41. Its next support zone is at 1.40000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.43500.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/USD up until the U.S. FOMC meeting tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8).

USD/CAD Outlook (16 June 2021)

Overall, USD/CAD is trending upwards. Recently, USD/CAD trended up and bounced down from the key level of 1.22.

The Canadian Housing Starts data (Actual: 276K, Forecast: 271K, Previous: 267K revised from 269K) released yesterday indicated an increase in the number of residential buildings that began construction in May.

The Canadian CPI m/m data (Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.5%) will be released later at 2030 (GMT+8).

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will be speaking tomorrow at 0645 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in CAD.

USD/CADs next support zone is at 1.21000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.22400.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/CAD up until the U.S. FOMC meeting tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8).

GBP/JPY Outlook (16 June 2021)

Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across.

The UK employment data released yesterday indicated an overall positive outlook in the UK jobs market. The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits declined instead of an expected increase.

- Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 5.6%, Forecast: 4.9%, Previous: 4.3% revised from 4.0%)

- Claimant Count Change (Actual: -92.6K, Forecast: 25.0K, Previous: -55.8K revised from -15.1K)

- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.7%, Forecast: 4.7%, Previous: 4.8%)

The UK CPI y/y data will be released later at 1400 (GMT+8).

- CPI y/y (Forecast: 1.8%, Previous: 1.5%)

- Core CPI y/y (Forecast: 1.5%, Previous: 1.3%)

Currently, GBP/JPY is testing to break below the key level of 155. Its next support zone is at 153.000 and the next resistance zone is at 155.000.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/JPY if it bounces up from the key level of 155.

EUR/JPY Outlook (16 June 2021)

Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across.

EUR/JPYs next support zone is at 132.800 and the next resistance zone is at 134.300.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/JPY.