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Abstract:Crude oil prices may fall if upbeat US retail sales and consumer confidence data cool Fed rate cut bets and sour risk appetite across financial markets.
CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:
Crude oil prices fall as OPEC+ dithers on output reduction
Gold prices seesaw on ECB rate decision, US inflation data
Firm US retail, confidence data may cool Fed rate cut bets
Crude oil prices fell as OPEC+ energy ministers – a steering group for the cartel-led coordinated output cut effort among major suppliers – dithered on reducing production further. The newly-minted representative from Saudi Arabia said any such decision will have to wait until December.
Meanwhile, gold prices seesawed. The metal initially rushed higher as the ECB announced another round of quantitative easing, then promptly reversed course as headline US CPI registered lower than expected. That seemed to boost confidence in potent Fed easing at next weeks FOMC meeting, buoying risk appetite.
CRUDE OIL PRICES AT RISK IF US ECONOMIC DATA DENTS FED RATE CUT BETS
Looking ahead, US retail sales and consumer confidence data are in focus. Outcomes echoing the recent tendency for US economic news-flow to top baseline forecasts might cool Fed rate cut speculation. That is likely to dent risk appetite, weighing on oil prices.
Gold prices might have been expected to track higher in a risk-off environment as capital flowing toward the safety of government debt drive down bond yields. That may be a difficult feat to muster however when worries about higher-than-expected borrowing costs are the source of turmoil themselves.
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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices continue to hover above support near the August swing bottom in the 1480.00-84.63 area. A daily close below that exposes the 1437.70-52.95 area next. Alternatively, a push above the 1520.34-23.05 price inflection area sets the stage for rise to challenge the weekly chart inflection point at 1563.00.
Gold price chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices continue to hover above support guiding the upswing from Augusts swing bottom. A daily close below this level – now at 55.11 – faces a minor barrier at 52.96 along the way to challenge major support near the $50/bbl figure. Alternatively, a bounce that clears the September 10 high at 58.76 sets the stage for a test of the 60.04-84 area.
Crude oil price chart created using TradingView
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
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Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
The USD/JPY pair rises to 154.35 during the Asian session as the Yen strengthens against the Dollar for the fourth consecutive session, nearing a 12-week high. This is due to traders unwinding carry trades ahead of the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike and bond purchase tapering. Recent strong US PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy. Investors await US GDP and PCE inflation data, indicating potential volatility ahead of key central bank events.
The USD/JPY is expected to rise. The Bank of Japan will keep interest rates between 0 and 0.1% and continue its bond purchase plan but may reduce purchases and raise rates in July based on economic data. Technically, the pair is trending upward with resistance at $158.25 and $158.44, and support at $157.00, $156.16, and $155.93.
The dollar ticked higher on Friday amid a broadly calmer tone in markets as fears over Omicron’s impact eased, but currency moves were muted ahead of a key U.S. payrolls report that could clear the path to earlier Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
The dollar ticked higher on Friday amid a broadly calmer tone in markets as fears over Omicron’s impact eased, but currency moves were muted ahead of a key U.S. payrolls report that could clear the path to earlier Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.