GBPUSD Rate Outlook Hinges on Bank of England (BoE) Forward Guidance

British Pound Rate Talking Points

英镑汇率谈话要点

GBPUSD holds a narrow range as the UK Leadership Contest gets underway, but the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on June 20 may shake up the near-term outlook for the British Pound if the central bank alters the forward guidance for monetary policy.

随着英国领导力竞赛的开始，英镑兑美元持有窄幅区间，但6月20日的英格兰银行（BoE）会议可能会改变英镑近期的前景，如果中央银行改变货币政策的前瞻性指引。

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral

英镑的基本预测：中性

The British Pound may face range-bound conditions as the BoE is widely expected to retain the current policy, but fresh data prints coming out of the UK may sway the monetary policy outlook as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to narrow to 2.0% from 2.1% per annum in April, while Retail Sales are projected to fall 0.8% in May.

英镑可能面临区间波动，因为人们普遍预计英国央行将保留现行政策，但英国出现的新数据可能会影响货币政策前景，因为预计消费者价格指数（CPI）将缩小至4月份每年2.1％的增长率为2.0％，而5月份零售额预计将下降0.8％。

Signs of a slowing economy may produce headwinds for the British Pound as it puts pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to abandon the rate hiking cycle, and Governor Mark Carney and Co. may gradually change their tune over the coming months amid the persistent threat of a no-deal Brexit. In turn, BoE officials may adopt a more dovish tone as the “economic outlook will continue to depend significantly on the nature and timing of EU withdrawal,” and a material adjustment in the forward guidance for monetary policy may undermine the recent rebound in GBPUSD as it spurs speculation for a change in regime.

经济放缓的迹象可能会产生影响英镑的逆风，因为它给货币政策委员会（MPC）施加压力，要求放弃加息周期，而州长马克卡尼和公司可能会在未来几个月内逐渐改变他们的态度Brexit。反过来，英国央行官员可能采取更温和的语调，因为“经济前景将继续严重依赖欧盟退出的性质和时间”，货币政策前瞻指引的重大调整可能会破坏近期英镑兑美元的反弹。它刺激了对政权更迭的猜测。

In contrast, more of the same from the MPC may keep the British Pound afloat as “the Committee continues to judge that, were the economy to develop broadly in line with its Inflation Report projections, an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon.”

相比之下，MPC更多相同的情况可能会使英镑维持下去委员会继续判断，经济是否正常根据其通胀报告预测进行广泛发展，在预测期内持续收紧货币政策，以逐步的速度和有限的程度，适当地将通货膨胀率可持续地恢复到常规范围内的2％目标。

As a result, GBPUSD may continue to consolidate if the BoE sticks to the same script, but retail sentiment remains stretched despite the range-bound conditions, with retail FX traders still net-long Pound Dollar.

因此，GBPUSD可能继续如果英国央行坚持使用相同的脚本，那么零售情绪仍然会受到限制，尽管受到区间限制，零售外汇交易商仍然是净多头英镑。

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 77.1% of traders are still net-long GBP/USD compared 79.8% in late-May, with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.36 to 1. Keep in mind, traders have remained net-long since May 6 when GBPUSD traded near 1.3230 even though price has moved 3.4% lower since then.

IG客户情绪报告显示，77.1％的交易者仍然是净多头英镑/美元，而5月末为79.8％，交易者的多头比例为3.36比1.请记住自5月6日英镑兑美元汇率在1.3230附近交易以来，交易商一直保持净多头，尽管此后价格已经下跌了3.4％。

The number of traders net-long is 1.8% higher than yesterday and 1.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.5% lower than yesterday and 0.9% higher from last week. The persistent tilt in retail sentiment offers a contrarian view as GBPUSD snaps the upward trend from late-2018, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic.

交易者净多头增加1.8％交易商净空头数比昨日下降4.5％，较上周上涨0.9％。零售情绪的持续倾斜提供了逆势观点，因为英镑兑美元从2018年末开始上升趋势，相对强弱指数（RSI）突显了类似的动态。

GBP/USD Rate Daily Chart

英镑/美元汇率每日图表

Keep in mind, the broader outlook for GBP/USD is no longer bullish as the exchange rate snaps the upward trend from late last year after failing to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3310 (100% expansion) to 1.3370 (78.6% expansion).

请记住，英镑/美元的更广阔前景不再看涨，因为汇率未能收盘高于斐波那契重叠1.3310（100％扩张）后，从去年年底开始上升趋势至1.3370（78.6％扩张）。

As a result, the advance from the 2019-low (1.2373) may continue to unravel, with the near-term outlook mired by the failed attempt to push back above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2760 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2800 (50% expansion).

因此，2019年低点（1.2373）的上涨可能会继续解开，近期前景因失败而陷入困境试图推回斐波那契重叠之上d 1.2760（38.2％回撤位）至1.2800（50％扩张）。

Need a move back below the 1.2610 (23.6% retracement) to 1.2640 (38.2% expansion) region to bring the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2370 (50% expansion) to 1.2440 (50% expansion) back on the radar.

需要回落至1.2610（23.6％回撤位）下方至1.2640（38.2％expa）sion）区域将斐波纳契重叠在1.2370（50％扩张）附近重叠至1.2440（50％扩张）回到雷达上。

Will keep a close eye on the RSI as the oscillator extends the bearish formation from earlier this year, with a move below 30 raising the risk for another selloff in the exchange rate as it suggests the bearish momentum is gathering pace.

将密切关注RSI作为振荡器延续了今年早些时候的看跌形态，低于30，提高了汇率再次抛售的风险，因为它表明看跌势头正在加速。