Euro at Risk as the ECB Sets Up for a Dovish Policy Trajectory

EURO FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BEARISH

欧元基本预测：熊势

• ECB Forum likely to establish a dovish direction for forthcoming policy

• EU leaders will probably pick status-quo replacement for top ECB job

  欧盟领导人可能会选择替换欧洲央行最高职位的现状

• Cross-currents from the US and the UK bode ill for the single currency

  来自美国和英国的交叉流导致单一货币不适用

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The Euro faces a decisive week ahead despite the what looks to be a relatively muted homegrown economic data docket. Regional policymakers are due to make several key regional strategy decisions, while the external front offers ample scope for volatility spillover potential.

欧元面临着决定性的一周尽管看起来是一个相对平静的本土经济数据。区域政策制定者将做出若干关键的区域战略决策，而外部决策则为波动溢出潜力提供充分的空间。

EURO AT RISK AS ECB DRAFTS POLICY PATH AND THE EU PICKS ITS NEW PRESIDENT

欧元风险作为欧洲央行的政策路径和欧盟挑选新任总统

First, the central bank officials will gather for the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal. They will weigh up the economic landscape and are expected to consider whether the Eurozone requires additional monetary stimulus. A formal policy announcement is not in the cards, but markets will keenly parse emerging commentary.

首先，央行官员将齐聚葡萄牙辛特拉的欧洲央行论坛。他们将权衡经济格局，并预计将考虑欧元区是否需要额外的货币刺激措施。正式的政策公告并未出现，但市场将密切关注新兴评论。

The pace of economic activity growth appears to have stabilized in 2019 after last year‘s precipitous decline, but that’s cold comfort considering it is within a hair of six-year lows. Further, regional financial conditions have tightened while the markets baseline expectations for growth in 2020 continue to sink.

经济活动增长的步伐似乎在去年急剧下降后于2019年稳定下来但考虑到它处于六年低点之内，这是一种冷酷的感觉。此外，区域金融状况收紧，而市场对2020年经济增长的预期继续下降。

Taken together, this probably translates into a cautious wait-and-see stance as the ECB awaits the results of its upcoming round of TLTRO bank liquidity injections. A clear dovish tilt in official rhetoric signaling the capacity to do more as needed appears to be likely however.

总的来说，这可能转化为谨慎的观望态度。欧洲央行等待即将到来的TLTRO银行流动性注入的结果。然而，在官方言论中明确表达了能够根据需要做出更多努力的明显温和倾向。

Later in the week, EU heads of state will convene to fill upcoming leadership vacancies at the Commission and – perhaps more importantly – the ECB. Of the front-runners for Mario Draghis job, former Governor of the Bank of Finland Erkki Liikanen seems like a choice the markets would find reassuring.

本周晚些时候，欧盟国家元首将召开会议。填补委员会即将到来的领导职位空缺 - 或许更重要的是 - 欧洲央行。在Mario Draghis工作的领先者中，芬兰银行前总督Erkki Liikanen似乎是市场会放心的选择。

Mr Liikanen is a known quantity in the EU and is broadly seen as consensus-building moderate with a steady hand. Germany‘s ultra-hawkish Jens Weidmann may be supportive for the Euro but little else. Berlin will probably insist that France’s François Villeroy de Galhau be sidelined also on balance-seeking grounds.

Liikanen先生是众所周知的数量。欧盟并被广泛视为建立共识的稳定手段。德国极端强硬的Jens Weidmann可能会支持欧元，但其他方面却很少。柏林可能会坚持要求法国的弗朗索瓦·维勒罗·德加尔豪在寻求平衡的基础上也被搁置。

On balance, a clearly accommodative bias emerging from the Forum coupled with a broadly status-quo pick like Mr Liikanen for the next ECB President seem most probable. Taken together, they probably carry modestly bearish implications for the single currency.

总的来说，论坛产生的明显宽松的偏见加上广泛的现状像Liikanen先生那样挑选下一届欧洲央行行长似乎最有可能。总的来说，它们可能会对单一货币产生适度的看跌影响。

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FED OUTLOOK UPDATE, BOE COMMENTARY MAY STOKE EURO VOLATILITY

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Looking beyond the borders of the Euro area, potent cross-currents are likely to emerge from the US and UK. First, a monetary policy announcement from the Fed will bring an update of official rate path projections. The markets are priced for dramatic easing: 2-3 cuts this year, plus the end of the QT balance sheet unwind.

超越欧元区边界，美国和英国可能会出现强大的交叉流。首先，美联储的货币政策公告将带来官方利率路径预测的更新。市场定价为大幅放松：今年减少2-3次，加上QT资产负债表的结束。

That strikes a hard contrast with the FOMCs March forecast of no changes this year and one hike in 2020. While a dovish adjustment seems likely, a relatively more modest one than what investors have envisioned might boost the US Dollar and pressure the Euro via a lower EURUSD exchange rate.

这与FOMC 3月份的预测形成鲜明对比今年的变化和2020年的一次加息。尽管似乎可能出现温和的调整，但相对较温和的调整可能会提高美元并通过较低的欧元兑美元汇率对欧元施加压力。

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Meanwhile, a second round of leadership voting in the UK Conservative Party might bring Boris Johnson closer to replacing Theresa May as Prime Minister. He won the first round by a landslide. That didnt seem to register a strong market response, but progress on the contest may yet bring regional volatility.

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A rate decision from the Bank of England and the annual Mansion House speech from its Governor Mark Carney are also due. No changes are expected as Brexit uncertainty keeps officials sidelined but steep economic deterioration over the past month may prompt worrying remarks, rattling European markets.

英格兰银行的利率决定和每年的Mansion House演讲州长马克卡尼也将到期。没有陈由于英国脱欧的不确定性导致官员缺席，但过去一个月经济急剧恶化可能引发令人担忧的言论，令欧洲市场感到不安。