US Dollar May Rise on Growth Angst. S&P 500 Earnings to Fall？

TALKING POINTS – US DOLLAR, YEN, BANK OF AMERICA, ZEW, S&P 500

谈话要点 - 美元，日元，美国银行，ZEW，标准普尔500指数

• Downbeat RBA meeting minutes trigger risk-off G10 FX response

  低迷的澳大利亚央行会议纪要引发G10外汇风险回落

• German ZEW, US industrial production, BofA results due ahead

  德国ZEW，美国工业生产，美国银行业绩提前到期

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A downbeat tone in minutes from Aprils RBA meeting triggered a broadly risk-off response from financial markets, as expected. The Australian Dollar plunged alongside its similarly sentiment-sensitive Canadian and New Zealand counterparts while the anti-risk US Dollar and Japanese Yen gained. Crude oil tellingly fell with Treasury bond yields.

一个悲观的基调正如预期的那样，4月份澳大利亚央行会议的会议纪要引发了金融市场广泛的风险回应。澳大利亚元与其同样情绪敏感的加拿大和新西兰同行一道暴跌，同时抗风险美元和日元上涨。据报道，中央银行讨论了可能需要降息的情况，加强了近期官方言论的温和转变，原油显然随国债收益率而下跌。{/ p>

Looking ahead, Germany‘s ZEW survey of analysts’ sentiment and US industrial production figures may amplify global slowdown fears. Macro data flow out of both countries has tended to underperform relative to baseline forecasts in recent months. The first-quarter earnings report form Bank of America may add to pressure if it echoes yesterdays lackluster results from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

展望未来，德国ZEW对分析师情绪和美国工业生产数据的调查可能会放缓全球经济放缓的担忧。近几个月来自这两个国家的宏观数据流量往往低于基线预测。美国银行的第一季度收益报告可能会增加压力，如果它与昨天高盛和花旗集团的低迷结果相呼应。

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CHART OF THE DAY – S&P 500 EARNINGS ON PACE TO FALL IN FIRST QUARTER

一天的图表 - 标准普尔500指数第一季度的收益

The on-going slide in global growth may bring the first quarter of negative corporate earnings growth in three years. JPMorgan Global PMI data shows the pace of expansion in nonfarm activity has been slowing since the beginning of last year. Data from Bloomberg reveals that this began to show up in the performance companies comprising the bellwether S&P 500 stock index in the fourth quarter of 2018.

全球经济增长的持续下滑可能会在三年内带来企业盈利增长的第一季度。摩根大通全球PMI数据显示了扩张的步伐自去年年初以来，非农业活动一直在放缓。彭博社的数据显示，2018年第四季度开始出现包括领头羊标准普尔500股票指数在内的表现公司。

The drop appears to be accelerating, with first-quarter results published thus far implying earnings are on pace to fall 4.3 percent on-year. It is important not to overstate this. After all, just under 7 percent of the companies represented in the index have reported thus far. That means a more benign outcome may yet be in the cards. A more malignant one is likewise a possibility however.

下跌似乎正在加速，首先是截至目前公布的四分之一业绩意味着盈利同比下降4.3％。重要的是不要夸大这一点。毕竟，到目前为止，该指数中只有不到7％的公司报告过。这意味着可能会有更好的结果。然而，更恶性的也是可能的。