GBPUSD Price Outlook Poor Even as UK Inflation Fears Mount

UK wages, GBP price, news and analysis:

英国工资，英镑价格，新闻和分析：

• Average weekly earnings in the UK continue to rise faster than the CPI measure of inflation.

  英国平均每周收入

• That suggests inflationary pressures are building.

  这表明通胀压力正在增加。

• However, the chances of an interest rate increase by the Bank of England are remote because of Brexit so the Pound is unlikely to benefit.

  然而，由于英国退欧，英格兰银行加息的可能性很小，因此庞德不太可能受益。

UK wages growth buoyant

英国工资增长活跃

The increase in UK average weekly earnings was unchanged at 3.5% year/year in the three months to February, suggesting that inflationary pressures are building in the UK economy. Separate data due Wednesday are expected to reveal that the CPI measure of inflation climbed to 2.0% year/year in March, up from 1.9% but still showing that real wages are rising and that inflationary pressures in the UK economy are therefore building.

英国平均每周收入增长在三个月内保持不变，年均增长率为3.5％ 2月，表明英国经济正在建立通胀压力。周三公布的单独数据预计将显示3月CPI通胀指标年率攀升至2.0％，高于1.9％，但仍表明实际工资正在上升，因此英国经济的通胀压力正在增加。 p>

In normal times, that would mean growing speculation on an interest rate increase by the Bank of England and therefore a climb in GBPUSD and the GBP crosses. However, the central bank is most unlikely to raise rates until there is more clarity on Brexit – and the next rate move could yet be down.

在正常情况下，这意味着对英格兰银行加息的猜测越来越多，因此英镑兑美元和英镑交叉盘上涨。然而，在英国脱欧更加明确之前，央行最不可能加息 - 下一次加息可能会下降。

GBPUSD was lifted by the latest figures but longer-term it continues to ease from the highs seen a month ago and that trend lower could well continue particularly as, from a technical perspective, the pair remains in a bearish descending triangle chart pattern.

英镑兑美元被最新数据提升但是长期来看，它继续从一个月前的高位回落，并且趋势走低可能会继续，特别是从技术角度来看，该货币对仍处于看跌下行三角形图形中。

GBPUSD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (March 11 – April 16, 2019)

GBPUSD价格走势图，每小时时间表（2019年3月11日 - 4月16日）

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

IG图表（可以点击查看大图）

Note that no important Brexit developments are expected this week while the Westminster Parliament remains on its Easter break.

请注意，本周预计英国脱欧没有重要的发展，而威斯敏斯特议会仍将在复活节假期休息。

Core earnings less buoyant

核心盈利不那么活跃

Looking at the data in more depth, average earnings excluding bonuses increased by 3.4%, down from 3.5%, and there was bad news from the jobs data. Employment rose by only 179,000 in February, down from a 222,000 increase the month before although the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%.

查看数据更深入的是，不包括奖金的平均收入增长了3.4％，低于3.5％，并且有就业数据的坏消息。 2月就业人数仅增加179,000，低于前一个月的222,000，尽管失业率保持在3.9％不变。

Wednesday‘s numbers are also expected to show a small increase in the core inflation rate year/year. However, there should be better news from Thursday’s retail sales data, with economists predicting a year/year increase of 4.6% in March, up from 4.0%.

周三的数据预计也将显示核心通胀率/年的小幅增长。然而，周四的零售销售数据应该有更好的消息，经济学家预测3月份的年/年增长率为4.6％，高于4.0％。

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

---由分析师兼编辑Martin Essex撰写