Top 5 Events: Q119 New Zealand CPI & NZDUSD Price Forecast

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The Q119 New Zealand Consumer Price Index is due on Tuesday, April 16 at 22:45 GMT.

- Q119新西兰消费者物价指数将于4月16日星期二格林尼治标准时间22:45到期。

- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has taken on a more dovish tone in recent months, with rates markets leaning towards a 25-bps rate cut in June.

- 新西兰储备银行近几个月采取了更为温和的态度，利率市场在6月份降息25个基点。

- Retail tradersare net-long NZDUSD but recent positioning changes point to more losses.

- 零售交易商是净多头新西兰元，但最近的定位变化表明损失更多。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一美国东部时间7:30 /格林威治标准时间11:30 30分参加FX周前网络研讨会，我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

04/16 TUESDAY | 22:45 GMT | NZD Consumer Price Index (1Q)

04/16星期二|格林尼治标准时间22:45 |新西兰消费者物价指数（1Q）

Q1‘19 New Zealand inflation data are due to underscore the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent concerns about a sluggish economy, according to Bloomberg News surveys. Following the collapse of both agricultural and energy commodity prices in Q4‘18, the prevailing trend of low inflation across the developed economic world is expected spread to New Zealand’s shore. Quarterly price pressures are expected in at +0.3% after having gained +0.1% in Q418, while the yearly reading is due in at +1.7% from +1.9%.

1919年第一季度新西兰通胀数据应该强调新西兰储备银行近期对经济低迷的担忧，彭博新闻调查显示。在18年第四季度农业和能源商品价格暴跌之后，发达经济体普遍存在的低通胀趋势预计将扩散到新西兰的海岸。在第四季度增长+ 0.1％之后，季度价格压力预计为+ 0.3％，而年度数据应该从+1.9％增加到+ 1.7％。

Despite the expected decline in inflation readings, traders may want to be alert for potentially better than expected price pressures. New Zealand Terms of Trade likely rebounded in Q119 because of a sharp rebound in milk product prices. The New Zealand Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Price Index was up nearly 17% in the first quarter, which should have helped inflation readings stabilize.

尽管预期通胀数据出现下滑，但交易商可能希望警惕潜在好于预期的价格压力。由于奶制品价格大幅反弹，新西兰贸易条件可能在第119季度出现反弹。新西兰全球乳制品贸易（GDT）价格指数在第一季度上涨了近17％，这应该有助于通胀数据的稳定。

As such, even if inflation remains below the RBNZ‘s medium-term target of +2%, a ’beat on the data may see rates markets fail to become any more dovish than they currently are priced. After all, rates markets are pricing-in a 54.9% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by June 2019. Simply pushing back the timing of the first expected hike to September 2019 could provoke a short-term rally by the New Zealand Dollar.

因此，即使通胀仍然低于新西兰央行的中期目标是+ 2％，数据上的打击可能会看到利率市场不会变得比他们目前定价更温和。毕竟，利率市场正在定价 - 到2019年6月降息25个基点的可能性为54.9％。意味着将第一次预期的加息时间推迟到2019年9月可能会引发新西兰元的短期反弹。

Pairs to Watch: AUDNZD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD

值得关注：澳元兑纽元，新西兰元，新西兰元

NZDUSD Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (June 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

NZDUSD技术预测：每日价格走势图（2018年6月至2019年4月）（图1）

Since bottoming out of its 2018 downtrend in early-November, NZDUSD has spent most of 2019 consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. In April so far, price has broken down through the March low at 0.6745 and temporarily broken through the February low at 0.6720, culminating in a break of the uptrend from the October 2018 and January 2019 lows.

自触底反弹在2018年的下降趋势中，11月初，新西兰元兑美元在2019年的大部分时间内以对称的三角形进行了巩固。到目前为止，4月份价格已突破3月低点0.6745并暂时突破2月低点0.6720，最终突破2018年10月和2019年1月低点的上升趋势。

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IG Client Sentiment Index: NZDUSD (April 12, 2019) (Chart 2)

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Retail trader data shows 70.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.34 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since April 2 when NZDUSD traded near 0.67513; price has moved 0.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 11.9% lower than yesterday and 2.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.5% lower than yesterday and 17.9% lower from last week.

零售交易者数据显示，70.1％的交易者是净多头，交易者多头做空比率为2.34比1.事实上，交易者自4月2日以来一直保持净多头新西兰元兑美元汇率在0.67513附近交易;此后价格已上涨0.3％。交易商净多头比昨天减少11.9％，比上周增加2.6％，而交易商净空头数比yesterda低17.5％与上周相比下降了17.9％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待市场情绪，而且交易商净多头表明纽元兑美元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们对新西兰元兑美元看跌的逆势交易偏好更加强烈。