New Zealand Dollar Fades As ANZ Business Confidence Flops Again

New Zealand Dollar, ANZ Business Confidence Talking Points:

新西兰元，澳新银行商业信心谈话要点：

• ANZs sentiment measure wilted again

  澳新银行的情绪措施萎靡不振再次

• Weak confidence remains entrenched and will likely hit investment going forward

  弱势信心仍然存在，可能会对未来的投资产生影响

• The Reserve Banks new caution may enhance the currency impact of soft data

  储备银行的新警告可能会增强软数据对货币的影响

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加入我们的分析师，对所有主要经济数据进行实时，互动的报道。 DailyFX网络研讨会。周三喜欢和你在一起。

The New Zealand Dollar was knocked Thursday by yet another weak business confidence reading which, while hardly news in itself, may now have more bearing on the path of domestic interest rates.

新西兰元周四被另一个疲软的商业信心指数所打击，虽然这本身几乎没有消息，但现在可能对这条路径有更多影响国内利率。

The March confidence outlook from the Australia and New Zealand Bank came in at -38, well below Februarys -30.9. The activity outlook slipped to 6.3 from 10.5. Weakness in this release is sadly nothing new. Confidence has been in negative territory since late 2017.

3月份澳大利亚和新西兰银行的信心前景指数为-38，远低于Februarys -30.9。活动前景从10.5下滑至6.3。这个版本中的弱点遗憾地没什么新意。自2017年底以来，信心一直处于负面区域。

ANZ said that the economy is quietly losing steam, with firms increasingly wary. It also suspected that the ‘hard’ official economic numbers could start to wilt further too.

澳新银行表示，经济正在悄然失去动力，企业越来越谨慎。它还怀疑“严峻”的官方经济数据可能会开始进一步下滑。

Given that gloomy read its hardly surprising that NZD/USD should have slipped.

鉴于这令人沮丧，因此新西兰元/美元应该下跌并不令人意外。

The effect of weak data may be magnified following commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after it opted to keep interest rates on hold at record lows Wednesday. The RBNZ noted a shift in economic risks to the downside, leaving lower rates as an implicit likelihood. The central bank had previously been more balanced in its prognosis.

新西兰储备银行在周三选择维持利率于历史低位后，评论数据可能放大。新西兰联储注意到经济风险转向下行，将较低的利率视为隐含的可能性。此前中央银行的预测更加平衡。

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That shift had already hit the Kiwi hard this week, taking it below its former, resilient uptrend.

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It‘s now possible that domestic economic numbers will have a lot more impact on the currency, especially if they are seen to confirm the RBNZ’s darker suspicions.

现在国内经济数据可能对货币产生更大影响，特别是如果它们被视为证实了新西兰联储的黑暗怀疑。

Technically speaking the pair is flirting with the second, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its 2019 rise. That comes in at 0.6797 and seems to be giving way under concerted bear pressure. Failure here will probably put focus on the 0.6750 area which marks the last significant low, made earlier this month. It also coincides neatly with the 50% retracement.

从技术上讲，该货币对正在调整其2019年上涨的第二个38.2％斐波那契回撤位。这是在0.6797，似乎在一致的承受压力下让步。这里的失败可能会集中在0.6750区域，这是本月早些时候的最后一个重要低点。它也与50％的回撤整齐地吻合。

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

--- David Cottle撰稿，DailyFX Research