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Abstract:This week, key economic events expected to generate high volatility include China's Q2 GDP and retail sales data, impacting CNY. The US will release Core Retail Sales and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, affecting USD. The UK's CPI data will influence GBP, and the ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference will impact EUR. These events will drive significant market movements due to their influence on monetary policy and economic outlooks.
10:00 CNY - GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
Description: Measures the quarterly change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
Impact: Lower-than-expected growth indicates a slowdown in economic activity, bearish for CNY. High volatility expected as markets react to potential economic policy adjustments.
10:00 CNY - GDP (YoY) (Q2)
Description: Measures the annual change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
Impact: Lower-than-expected annual growth raises concerns about economic momentum, bearish for CNY. Significant market movements anticipated.
10:00 CNY - Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
Description: Measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
Impact: Lower-than-expected retail sales growth indicates weaker consumer spending, bearish for CNY. High volatility as this impacts economic growth expectations.
10:00 CNY - Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
Description: Measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
Impact: Better-than-expected production growth is bullish for CNY, while lower-than-expected results would be bearish. High volatility due to its impact on overall economic health.
20:30 USD - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
Description: Measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.
Impact: Higher-than-expected sales indicate strong consumer spending, bullish for USD. Lower-than-expected results are bearish. High volatility expected as it impacts economic outlook.
20:30 USD - Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
Description: Measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
Impact: Similar to core retail sales, it directly impacts consumer spending and economic health, leading to significant market movements.
14:00 GBP - CPI (YoY) (Jun)
Description: Measures the annual change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective.
Impact: Higher-than-expected inflation can lead to increased expectations for interest rate hikes, bullish for GBP. Lower-than-expected inflation is bearish. High volatility expected due to its impact on monetary policy.
14:00 GBP - Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)
Description: Measures the annual change in the price of goods and services, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco.
Impact: Similar to the overall CPI, it impacts monetary policy expectations and market sentiment, leading to high volatility.
17:00 EUR - CPI (YoY) (Jun)
Description: Measures the annual change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective in the Eurozone.
Impact: Higher-than-expected inflation can lead to increased expectations for interest rate hikes, bullish for EUR. Lower-than-expected inflation is bearish. High volatility expected due to its impact on monetary policy.
20:15 EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
Description: The European Central Bank's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate.
Impact: A rate hike strengthens EUR, while a rate cut weakens it. High volatility expected as it affects borrowing costs and economic growth.
20:30 USD - Initial Jobless Claims
Description: Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
Impact: Higher-than-expected claims indicate a weakening labor market, bearish for USD. Lower-than-expected claims are bullish. High volatility as it impacts economic health perceptions.
20:30 USD - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Description: Measures the level of general business conditions in the Philadelphia region.
Impact: Higher-than-expected readings indicate improving economic conditions, bullish for USD. Lower readings are bearish. High volatility as it impacts economic sentiment.
20:45 EUR - ECB Press Conference
Description: ECB President speaks about the reasons behind the ECB's latest interest rate decision and other policy measures.
Impact: High volatility expected as the press conference can provide insights into future monetary policy and economic outlook, impacting the EUR.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
This week's economic events include: Japan's Monetary Policy Minutes and U.S. Services PMI on Monday, impacting JPY and USD. Tuesday's RBA Interest Rate Decision affects AUD, with German Factory Orders influencing EUR. Wednesday sees German Industrial Production and U.S. Crude Inventories impacting EUR and USD. Thursday: RBA Governor speaks, with U.S. Jobless Claims. Friday: China's CPI and Canada's Unemployment Rate affect CNY and CAD.
As we approach the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report on August 2, 2024, market participants are keenly observing the data for insights into the U.S. labor market. The report is expected to show an increase of 194,000 to 206,000 jobs for July, indicating modest growth. This suggests potential softening in the labor market. A weaker-than-expected report could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts, influencing the USD. Major currency pairs and gold prices will likely see volatility around the NFP release
This week's global market analysis covers significant movements and events. Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on interest rates impacts the USD. TSMC benefits from Samsung's strike. Geopolitical tensions rise with Putin's diplomacy. PBOC plans bond sales to stabilize CNY. Key economic events include Core CPI, PPI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment for the USA, and GDP data for the UK. These factors influence currency movements and market sentiment globally.
Recent developments include Labour's landslide UK election victory, geopolitical tensions from Eurasian security discussions, Trump's election impact on Japanese stocks, EU's tech regulatory actions, tentative Hamas-Israel ceasefire, continuity in Mexican policies, Toronto's housing market rise, Boeing's Starliner issues, SpaceX's ISS deorbit contract, Indian IT companies' earnings, Malaysian tech stocks upgrade, Philippine inflation easing, Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's drug approval, US housing mark