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Abstract:In May, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%. This decision reflects a commitment to keeping monetary policy restrictive to manage inflationary pressures and ensure that inflation returns to the target range of 1-3% by the end of 2024. The latest UK GDP data (MoM) for April 2024 showed that the economy remained flat at 0.0%, following a 0.4% increase in March 2024. This stagnation is attributed to declines in industrial output and...
The Week Ahead: Week of 8July(GMT+2)
Uncertainty Looms? Data To Illuminate US Inflation Path
Wednesday, 10 July2024, 04:00
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
In May, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%. This decision reflects a commitment to keeping monetary policy restrictive to manage inflationary pressures and ensure that inflation returns to the target range of 1-3% by the end of 2024.Given the current economic conditions and the RBNZ's focus on reducing inflation, it is likely that the RBNZ will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance and will likely maintain the interest rate at its current level in the near term.
Thursday, 11 July2024, 08:00
UK GDP (MoM) (May)
The latest UK GDP data (MoM) for April 2024 showed that the economy remained flat at 0.0%, following a 0.4% increase in March 2024. This stagnation is attributed to declines in industrial output and construction, which offset growth in the services sector.The manufacturing sector, particularly pharmaceuticals and food products, faced significant challenges, while the services sector showed modest growth.Given the current economic conditions, the outlook for next GDP release will be expected to remain cautious given the continued challenges in the manufacturing and construction sectors might constrain overall economic growth.
Thursday, 11 July 2024, 14:30
US CPI (YoY) (Jun)
In May, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for year-over-year stands at 3.3%, marginally below the forecast and last month's figure of 3.4%. This consistent CPI suggests that inflationary pressures have been relatively controlled, likely due to factors like stabilizing energy prices, food costs, and housing expenses. Given the recent trend, the outlook is for inflation to gradually decrease, slowly returning to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
Friday,12July2024, 14:30
U.S PPI (MoM) (Jun)
The latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May 2024 showed a decrease of -0.2% month-over-month, which was below the forecasted reading of 0.1%. This decline was primarily driven by a significant drop in goods prices, which fell by 0.8%, while service prices remained unchanged. The overall decrease suggests lower input costs for producers, potentially due to reduced demand or lower costs for raw materials and energy. Considering the recent trend of fluctuating figures and ongoing economic uncertainties, upcoming data is likely to continue reflecting weakness.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
Gold (XAU/USD) is predicted to decrease due to a mix of economic factors and technical indicators. Lower-than-expected US PPI and CPI data suggest potential Fed rate cuts, initially supporting gold, but a cautious Fed outlook has pulled prices back. Technically, a bearish Head-and-Shoulders pattern suggests a trend reversal, with a break below $2,279 confirming downside targets at $2,171 and $2,106. However, a rise above $2,345 could challenge this pattern and push prices back toward $2,450.
According to survey data, this year, many American travelers are opting for air travel over traditional road trips during the Memorial Day long weekend, marking an upward trend! On the other hand, bullish sentiment on the US dollar is beginning to retreat, turning net short for the first time in six weeks!
In the most recent trading session, asset classes remained largely unchanged as markets awaited key U.S. inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is set for release today, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow.
The Producer Price Index, which is an important gauge of wholesale-level inflation, increased by 2.1% over the 12 months leading up to March. This marks a rise from the 1.6% gain observed in February, representing its most substantial increase since April 2023. In March, consumer prices in the U.S. rose beyond expectations as consumer price index increases 0.4% in March, driven by higher costs for gasoline and rental housing. In March, U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations, with Core Retail..