Morgan Stanley sees another 25-bps Fed hike in March after strong jobs report

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points (bps) at the March policy meeting following a blockbuster U.S. non-farm payrolls report for January, according to Morgan Stanleys latest research note released on Friday.

纽约（路透社）——摩根士丹利周五发布的最新研究报告显示，继美国 1 月非农就业报告大获成功后，美联储可能在 3 月政策会议上再次加息 25 个基点 (bps) .

The U.S. investment bank previously called for a pause in the rate-hiking cycle in March after the Fed increased the policy benchmark rate by 25 bps on Wednesday. The current benchmark rate stands in a range of 4.50% to 4.75%

在美联储周三将政策基准利率上调 25 个基点后，这家美国投资银行此前曾呼吁暂停 3 月份的加息周期。目前的基准利率介于 4.50% 至 4.75% 之间

Fridays robust payrolls number has changed that forecast, Morgan Stanley said.

摩根士丹利表示，周五强劲的就业人数改变了这一预测。

“Even with more data outstanding ahead of the March FOMC, we think there is not enough time for the data to signal to the Fed that rates have moved sufficiently into restrictive territory,” Morgan Stanley wrote in the research note.

摩根士丹利在研究报告中写道：“即使在 3 月联邦公开市场委员会会议之前有更多未公布的数据，我们认为没有足够的时间让数据向美联储发出利率已充分进入限制区域的信号。”

Data showed that non-farm payrolls surged by 517,000 jobs last month, the most in six months. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a gain of 185,000. Data for December was revised higher to show 260,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 223,000.

数据显示，上月非农就业人数激增 517,000 个，为六个月来最多。路透调查的经济学家此前预计增加 185,000 人。 12 月份的数据被上调，显示增加了 260,000 个工作岗位，而不是之前报告的 223,000 个。

The unemployment rate, on the other hand, hit more than a 53-1/2-year low of 3.4%.

另一方面，失业率触及 53-1/2 年低点 3.4%。

Morgan Stanley also raised the peak fed funds rate to 4.875% from a previous estimate of 4.75%. However, it still sees the first rate cut in December 2023.

摩根士丹利还将最高联邦基金利率从先前估计的 4.75% 上调至 4.875%。但是，它仍预计将在 2023 年 12 月首次降息。

The rate futures market on Friday has priced in a terminal rate of 5.02% hitting in June. It has been under 5% for the last several weeks.

周五的利率期货市场已经消化了 6 月份触及 5.02% 的终端利率。过去几周一直低于 5%。

The Fed has projected it will raise its key policy rate to between 5% and 5.25% and keep it there at least until the end of the year.

美联储预计将把关键政策利率上调至 5% 至 5.25% 之间，并至少维持到年底。

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

(gertrude chavez-dreyfuss 报道；jonathan oatis 编辑)