Japans Q4 economic growth likely rebounded on tourism reopening

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japans economy likely returned to growth in the last quarter of 2022 as the country reopened to tourists, offsetting weakening corporate activity and exports amid darkening global conditions, a Reuters poll showed.

东京（路透社）——一项路透调查显示，随着日本重新对游客开放，抵消了企业活动和出口在全球形势暗淡下疲软的影响，日本经济可能在 2022 年最后一个季度恢复增长。

Signs of stronger momentum heading into 2023 could influence major companies and workers in Japan as they head into annual labour talks. Solid wage hikes are seen essential to the economy‘s post-pandemic recovery and the Bank of Japan’s exit from its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy.

进入 2023 年的强劲势头迹象可能会影响日本的主要公司和工人，因为他们即将开始年度劳资谈判。稳健的工资增长被视为经济大流行后复苏和日本央行退出其长达十年的超宽松货币政策的关键。

The worlds third-largest economy likely grew at an annualised 2.0% pace in October-December, following a 0.8% contraction in July-September, according to the median forecast of 18 economists.

根据 18 位经济学家的预测中值，继 7 月至 9 月收缩 0.8% 之后，世界第三大经济体 10 月至 12 月的年化增长率可能为 2.0%。

“Japan marked high growth backed by a recovery in services demand…even thought there were downside factors such as rising inflation and the slowing overseas economy,” said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.

mizuho research and technologies 高级经济学家 saisuke sakai 表示：“在服务需求复苏的支持下，日本实现了高增长……即使存在通胀上升和海外经济放缓等不利因素。”

Analysts expect 0.5% growth in fourth-quarter private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japans gross domestic product (GDP), driving up overall output.

分析师预计，占日本国内生产总值 (gdp) 一半以上的第四季度私人消费将增长 0.5%，从而推高整体产出。

External demand likely added 0.4 percent point to GDP growth, given a surge in service exports after Japan relaxed border controls to tourists in mid-October.

鉴于日本在 10 月中旬放宽对游客的边境管制后服务出口激增，外部需求可能为 gdp 增长贡献 0.4 个百分点。

By contrast, corporate capital expenditure was expected to have contracted for the first time in three quarters, declining 0.2% from July-September, the poll showed.

相比之下，调查显示，企业资本支出预计将出现三个季度以来的首次收缩，较 7 月至 9 月下降 0.2%。

Analysts said Japans growth will likely decelerate in the current quarter as faltering Western demand and inflation at four-decade highs weighs on business activity.

分析师表示，由于西方需求疲弱和通胀处于四年高位对商业活动构成压力，日本本季度的经济增长可能会放缓。

The government will release preliminary October-December GDP data at 8:50 a.m. on Feb. 14 (2350 GMT, Feb. 13).

政府将于 2 月 14 日上午 8 点 50 分（格林威治标准时间 2350，2 月 13 日）发布 10 月至 12 月的 gdp 初步数据。

Separate data due next week is expected to show Japans annual wholesale price inflation stayed elevated at 9.6% in January.

下周将公布的另一份数据预计将显示日本 1 月份的年度批发价格通胀率保持在 9.6% 的高位。

The current account surplus was forecast to have decreased to 98.4 billion yen ($765.34 million) in December after a 1.8 trillion yen excess in the previous month. Household spending likely fell 0.2% in December, dropping for a second straight month.

继前一个月的 1.8 万亿日元盈余之后，12 月份的经常账户盈余预计将减少至 984 亿日元（7.6534 亿美元）。 12 月份家庭支出可能下降 0.2%，连续第二个月下降。

The government will release current account balance data at 8:50 a.m. on Feb. 8 (2350 GMT, Feb. 7) and household spending data at 8:30 a.m. on Feb. 7 (2330 GMT, Feb. 6). Wholesale inflation data is due at 8:50 a.m. on Feb. 10 (2350 GMT, Feb. 9).

政府将于 2 月 8 日上午 8:50（格林威治标准时间 2350，2 月 7 日）发布经常账户余额数据，并于 2 月 7 日上午 8:30（格林威治标准时间 2330，2 月 6 日）发布家庭支出数据。批发通胀数据将于 2 月 10 日上午 8:50（格林威治标准时间 2350，2 月 9 日）公布。

($1 = 128.5700 yen)

($1 = 128.5700 日元)

(Reporting by Kantaro Komiya; Editing by Kim Coghill)

（kantaro komiya 报道；kim coghill 编辑）