Jobs report jolts Wall Street bulls as inflation fears return

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Much stronger-than-expected U.S. job growth stopped early-year rallies in stocks and bonds dead in their tracks on Friday, forcing Wall Street to recalibrate expectations for how much more hawkish the Federal Reserve will need to be in its fight against inflation.

纽约（路透社）——远超预期的美国就业增长在周五停止了年初股市和债券的涨势，迫使华尔街重新调整对美联储需要采取何种强硬态度的预期它与通货膨胀作斗争。

An unexpectedly dovish message from Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week had emboldened investors looking for evidence of the so-called “soft landing” scenario that has fueled a market rally this year, in which the central bank can tame inflation without causing a recession.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周早些时候出人意料地发出鸽派信息，鼓励投资者寻找所谓“软着陆”情景的证据，这种情景推动了今年的市场反弹，即央行可以在不引发经济衰退的情况下抑制通胀。

But Friday‘s data, which showed U.S. employment growth accelerating sharply in January, renewed the inflation concerns that hammered stocks and bonds last year, reinforcing some investors’ belief that the twin gains in both asset classes may have gotten ahead of themselves.

但周五的数据显示，美国 1 月份就业增长大幅加速，再次引发了去年打击股票和债券的通胀担忧，强化了一些投资者的信念，即这两种资产类别的双重增长可能已经超前了。

The S&P 500 index was down about 1% on Friday though still up 8% on the year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to prices, gained 12 basis points despite having declined by 30 basis points this year.

标准普尔 500 指数周五下跌约 1%，但年内仍上涨 8%。尽管今年下跌了 30 个基点，但与价格走势相反的基准 10 年期国债收益率上涨了 12 个基点。

“This report gives us more confidence that the Feds got to keep going, and that increases at the margin the odds that we do have to deal with a recession at some point later this year,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, who has been underweight equities while holding a larger allocation to fixed income and cash.

“这份报告让我们更有信心美联储必须继续前进，这在一定程度上增加了我们在今年晚些时候不得不应对经济衰退的可能性，”投资策略副总裁迈克尔雷诺兹说。 glenmede，他一直减持股票，同时持有较大的固定收益和现金配置。

Job growth and wages are a chief concern for the Fed in its attempt to lower inflation to its 2% target rate after it surged to 40-year highs last year. The Labor Departments nonfarm payrolls report on Friday showed a gain of 517,000 jobs in January, almost three times what was expected.

就业增长和工资是美联储在去年飙升至 40 年高位后试图将通胀率降至 2% 的目标时的主要关注点。劳工部周五公布的非农就业报告显示，1 月份就业岗位增加 517,000 个，几乎是预期的三倍。

The reading quelled hopes that the U.S. central bank might stop its tightening cycle, which is the most aggressive since the 1980s, after delivering just one more rate hike in March.

在 3 月份仅加息一次后，该数据打消了人们对美国中央银行可能停止其紧缩周期的希望，这是自 1980 年代以来最激进的周期。

Goldman Sachs said it continued to expect two more 25-basis-point hikes in March and May, while Morgan Stanley on Friday changed its forecast for the so-called terminal rate to 4.875% from 4.75%.

高盛表示，它继续预计 3 月和 5 月将再加息两次 25 个基点，而摩根士丹利周五将其所谓的最终利率预测从 4.75% 上调至 4.875%。

The Feds policy rate is currently in the 4.50%-4.75% range.

美联储政策利率目前处于 4.50%-4.75% 区间。

According to CME Group data, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the Feds March 21-22 policy meeting rose on Friday to around 95% from 83% just before the release of the jobs report. Those betting that the Fed might cut rates later this year also lost some conviction, with fed funds futures traders now expecting the policy rate to go down to 4.7% in December. Earlier this week, they anticipated a rate of 4.49%.

根据芝商所数据，美联储在 3 月 21 日至 22 日的政策会议上加息 25 个基点的可能性周五从就业报告发布前的 83% 上升至 95% 左右。那些押注美联储可能在今年晚些时候降息的人也失去了一些信心，联邦基金期货交易员现在预计政策利率将在 12 月降至 4.7%。本周早些时候，他们预计利率为 4.49%。

“The report will make insurance cuts less likely as there are no material signs of stress to force a rate cut,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, head of multi-asset retail investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

高盛资产管理多资产零售投资主管 alexandra wilson-elizondo 表示：“该报告将使保险性降息的可能性降低，因为没有任何迫使降息的压力迹象。”

“The data today reinforces our positioning where we continue to be cautious on risk as the inflation question is slowly coming back into the investment narrative,” she said.

“今天的数据强化了我们的立场，即我们继续对风险持谨慎态度，因为通胀问题正在慢慢回到投资叙事中，”她说。

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Paul Simao)

（davide barbuscia 报道；ira iosebashvili 和 paul simao 编辑）