EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Euro Upside Capped？

US Dollar, Euro, EUR/USD - Technical Outlook:

美元、欧元、欧元/美元——技术展望：

EUR/USD is struggling to break above key resistance

欧元/美元正在努力突破关键阻力位

The broader bias for the single currency remains down

对单一货币的更广泛偏见仍然下降

What is the short-term outlook and what are the key levels to watch？

短期前景如何，值得关注的关键水平是什么？

EUR/USD TECHNICAL FORECAST – BEARISH

欧元/美元技术预测——看跌

The retreat late last week from near key resistance is a sign that EUR/USDs recent rally could be running out of steam.

上周晚些时候从接近关键阻力位的回落表明欧元/美元近期的反弹可能已经失去动力。

The pair briefly rose past immediate resistance at the early-October high at parity, coinciding with the upper edge of a falling channel from April and giving the impression that the rebound could extend. However, it would be too soon to conclude that a valid resistance break has occurred. The single currency hasnt been able to clear tough resistance on the 89-day moving average, which has capped rallies since the beginning of 2022. It might be prudent to wait for a break above this barrier (now at about 1.0110) before concluding that a short-term low in EUR/USD has been set (see chart).

该货币对短暂突破 10 月初高点的即时阻力位，与 4 月以来下跌通道的上沿一致，给人以反弹可能延续的印象。但是，现在下结论认为有效的阻力突破已经发生还为时过早。单一货币未能清除 89 日移动均线的强劲阻力，该均线自 2022 年初以来一直限制涨势。谨慎的做法是等待突破该关口（目前约为 1.0110），然后得出结论认为欧元/美元的短期低点已被设定（见图表）。

Even if EUR/USD can rise above this immediate hurdle, there is plenty of subsequent resistance that could cap the upside. This includes the mid-September high of 1.0200 and the August high of 1.0365, which coincides with the 200-day moving average.

即使欧元/美元能够升破这一直接障碍，也有大量后续阻力可能限制上行空间。这包括 9 月中旬的高点 1.0200 和 8 月的高点 1.0365，与 200 天移动平均线重合。

On the downside, any break below the mid-October high of 0.9875 would be a sign that short-term upward pressure had faded, risking a drop towards the October 13 low of 0.9631.

不利的一面是，如果跌破 10 月中旬高点 0.9875，则表明短期上行压力已经消退，有跌向 10 月 13 日低点 0.9631 的风险。

Chart Created Using TradingView

Overall, EUR/USD‘s medium-term trend is down. This year’s Euro breakdown below a slightly upward-sloping trendline from 2015 points to further weakness against the Greenback in the coming weeks and months. The implied price objective following the breakout of the seven-year range works out to around 0.8900.

总体而言，欧元/美元的中期趋势是下跌。今年欧元跌破 2015 年以来略微向上倾斜的趋势线，表明未来几周和几个月兑美元将进一步走弱。突破七年区间后的隐含价格目标约为 0.8900。