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Abstract:The euro/US dollar (EUR/USD) pair has been highly volatile over the past few weeks.
Euro has risen considerably against the dollar to begin the new week on a positive trend following the news of Macron's victory in the first poll of the French elections.
The outcome of this final election will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, as Macron's victory means that the euro is more powerful. Hence, EURUSD had risen by 0.20% during the Asian session today to settle at $1.0957 before the current retracement that brought it back to last week's close at $1.08850.
Many political observers believe that Macron's victory is not assured this time. Le Pen has a high chance of winning the elections, given her record with Macron. The only way she can achieve this is if she gets the support of other parties to support her against the incumbent president.
Besides yesterday's second round of elections, other factors are weighing on the euro this week, such as the ECB meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to issue its current stance on inflation and rate hikes. Also, they will address the consumer's rising price index emanating from displacements due to the Ukraine wars.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the employment growth in the year ending in March by 818,000, an average monthly decrease of about 68,000, the largest downward revision since 2009. The substantial downward revision of employment data re-emphasized the severity and necessity of the U.S. employment problem, paving the way for a rate hike in September. Bearish for the U.S. dollar.
Fed Governor Bowman: There are upside risks to inflation, the labor market continues to strengthen, and a cautious attitude will be maintained at the September meeting. Boston Fed President Collins: If the data is as expected, it would be appropriate to start easing policy "soon". Inflationary pressure will slow down the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, which will be bullish for the dollar.
The ECB's consumer expectations survey shows mixed economic signals with slight improvements in unemployment expectations but unchanged growth forecasts. The euro faces pressure from a strong USD, while the GBP shows resilience, contributing to the strength of GBP/USD and the decline of EUR/GBP.
The week ahead: Traders on the backfoot ahead of a quiet week