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Abstract:EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Momentum
There is no question that short trades look much more likely to succeed than any long trades.
Short Trade IdeasGo short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2106 or 1.2150.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2047, 1.2037, or 1.1994.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD AnalysisDue to the small bearish retracement the previous day following a new 50-day high, today was very likely to be an up day. This was a profitable and accurate call, and my identification of 1.2129 as the support level to watch was a good call.
The market environment has changed quite dramatically, with markets spooked by increasing fears of inflation and the long-term risk-on rally well overdue a correction. Yesterday saw U.S. inflation come in at an annualized rate of 3%, the highest in about 25 years. This has caused relatively strong selloffs in global stock markets and a flow of funds into safe-haven currencies such as the U.S. dollar, which has sent the price down firmly.
It is difficult to say how long this bearish environment will last because there is no long-term trend, and because there is an even balance of support and resistance levels. However, at the time of writing, there is no question that short trades look much more likely to succeed than any long trades, so I will be happy to take a short trade after a bearish reversal from either of the identified resistance levels above.
There will be a release of U.S. unemployment claims data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled concerning the EUR.
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JPY strengthened against the USD, pushing USD/JPY near 145.00, driven by strong inflation data and BoJ rate hike expectations. Japan's strong Q2 GDP growth added support. However, USD gains may be limited by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
Gold prices remain above $2,500, near record highs, as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for confirmation of a potential Fed rate cut in September. The Fed's dovish shift, prioritizing employment over inflation, has weakened the US Dollar, boosting gold. A recent revision showing the US created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported also strengthens the case for a rate cut.
USD/JPY holds near 145.50, recovering from 144.95 lows. The Yen strengthens on strong GDP, boosting rate hike expectations for the Bank of Japan. However, gains may be limited by potential US Fed rate cuts in September.
Gold prices remain near record highs, driven by expectations of a US interest rate cut and a weakening US Dollar. Investors are focusing on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be closely watched for clues on the Fed's stance. Additionally, the release of US manufacturing data (PMIs) is expected to influence gold's direction.