Two Concerns Non-Negligible After Thanksgiving

It is reported that the US Food and Drug Administration has scheduled a meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee on Dec. 10 to discuss the request for emergency use authorization of a Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer. If nothing else, an approval would immediately allow the first Americans to get a vaccine on Dec. 11. Meanwhile, Moderna, another pharmaceutical company, will also receive approval and become available soon. Speculation on these positives will begin after Thanksgiving, which is a support to the weak DXY, gearing down its downtrend and sending a chance for it to bottom out. Since Americans will be the first to receive vaccines from the two drugmakers, the US economy may find the impetus to revive then.

In addition to the vaccination, there is another concern after the Thanksgiving holiday. The new leader of Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will be decided in mid-January 2021. The party congress, which was originally scheduled for the next Thursday (Dec. 3), was postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. The party congress of the CDU was tasked with choosing a new party leader as the candidate for the next October election. Now that Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successor Kramper Kahlenbauer have both said they would not stand for re-election nor run for election, financial markets are focusing on the race between the CDU and the rapidly emerging far-right Alternative for Germany.

Public discontent is growing due to the serious outbreak and the economic downturn in Germany. Financial markets are worried that the populist Alternative for Germany will take advantage of this situation and, if it defeats the CDU in next year's election and becomes the ruling party, it could become a significant “gray rhino” of 2021. Therefore, the CDU's party congress will be thrust into the spotlight ahead of Europe's financial markets.