The Euro May Expect a Strong Rally in 2020

Morgan Stanley believes that the euro will see a strong rally in 2020 under multiple factors. Compared with the United States, which may slow down further in 2020, the Eurozone may do significantly better than the relatively low market expectation by showing a strong economic rebound.

The Eurozone‘s economic growth has been weak in 2019. Trade tensions, uncertainties of Brexit and the slowdown of China's economic activities have weighed down on German’s manufacturing industry, striking a major blow to the economy. But economists believe that the Q3 data suggest the Eurozone economy may have bottomed out. Recent leading indicators have temporary shown signs of optimism, suggesting that German economy can hardly get worse and may start to pick up gradually in 2020. But the current data, though gradually rallying, is not yet good enough to prop up the euro.

A recovering economy may result in stronger bond yields in the Eurozone (especially in Germany), which in turn supports the euro. In general, Morgan Stanley predicts that the euro is likely to climb over 1.16 against the US dollar by the end of next March, and further rise to 1.18 by the end of June.