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Abstract:The recent EURUSD uptick is being reversed after the latest official German industrial production data show output crashing to multi-year lows.
In June the German Bundesbank lowered their 2019 German GDP forecast to just 0.6% from the 1.6% forecast it made in December 2018, highlighting ongoing trade concerns. The latest German GDP numbers are released next Wednesday.
今年6月,德国德国央行将2019年德国GDP预测从2018年12月的1.6%预测下调至0.6%,凸显了持续的贸易担忧。德国最新的GDP数据将于下周三公布。
Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar
通过DailyFX经济日历了解所有关键经济数据和事件发布日期
The German government bond yield curve, a closely-watched indicator of interest rate and inflation expectations and the eurozone proxy, is now negative all the way out to 30-years, effectively meaning that investors are locking in losses for the right to buy German debt.
德国政府债券收益率曲线,一个备受关注的利率和通胀预期指标以及欧元区代理人,现在已经走到30年不利,实际上意味着投资者正在锁定权利购买德国债券。
The daily EURUSD chart shows Monday‘s sharp gains being eroded with further downside all the way back to the 1.1100 level possible. There are a few recent highs between 1.1152 and 1.1162 that may slow any sell-off, while to the upside yesterday’s 3-week high at 1.1250 is unlikely to be tested in the short-term unless the US dollar falls sharply.
每日EURUSD图表显示周一的大幅上涨受到进一步下行的影响,一直回到1.1100水平可能。 1.1152和1.1162之间的近期高点有可能减缓任何抛售,而在昨天的3周高点1.1250上方,除非美元大幅下跌,否则短期内不太可能进行测试。
EURUSD Daily Price Chart (November 2018 – August 7, 2019)
EURUSD每日价格图表(2018年11月 - 2019年8月7日)
IG Client Sentiment data shows traders are 55.0% net-long EURUSD, a bearish contrarian bias. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that EURUSD may soon reverse higher.
IG Client Sentiment数据显示交易商净多头欧元兑美元为55.0%,这是一个看跌的逆势偏见。然而,最近的每日和每周位置变化表明欧元兑美元可能很快反转走高。
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
The latest ZEW economic sentiment reading ‘points to a significant deterioration in the outlook for the German economy’. And the outlook for the EU is just as bad.
Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini has called for a snap election in Italy saying there is no longer a majority in Parliament as his spat with co-deputy prime minister Luigi di Maio turns increasingly ugly.
Softening global growth and weak international trade are weighing on the euro area outlook, according to the latest ECB Bulletin, leaving EURUSD under downside pressure.
Rate decisions take place out of both Europe and the US in the next two weeks, with each carrying the expectation for dovish policy from the respective Central Bank.