EUR/USD Price Outlook: Support Grind at 1212 Ahead of ECB, FOMC

EURUSD Talking Points:

欧元兑美元谈话要点：

• EUR/USD will be in the spotlight over the next two weeks as rate decisions take place out of both Europe and the US, with each carrying the expectation for a dovish policy move out of the respective Central Bank.

  欧元/美元将成为未来两年的焦点几周之后，欧洲和美国都会做出利率决定，每个国家都希望将温和的政策转移到各自的中央银行之外。

• The big question is whether these drivers can produce a break of the recent volatility slump thats shown in the pair.

  最大的问题是这些驱动因素是否能够突破近期波动率的下滑。

EUR/USD in Focus Ahead of FOMC, ECB – Can They Break the Vol Slump？

欧元/美元在FOMC之前的焦点，欧洲央行 - 他们能否打破萧条？

The next two weeks bring key rate decisions out of both the US and Europe; each of which are highly-expected to carry some form of dovish policy as discussed by our own Nick Cawley earlier today. The ECB meeting is set for next Thursday, and the FOMC rate decision is the Wednesday after. In the US, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the first time in over a decade to the tune of 25 basis points. There are even some expectations for up to 50 basis points of cuts at the July meeting, and markets are currently looking for a total of three 25 basis point cuts by the end of this year. In Europe, expectations are high for a 10 basis point cut as Mario Draghi hosts one of his final rate meetings at the bank with his term is set to conclude in November.

接下来的两周将美国和欧洲的关键利率决定带出来;正如我们自己的尼克·考利今天早些时候所讨论的那样，每个人都有望采取某种形式的鸽派政策。欧洲央行会议定于下周四举行，FOMC利率决定是在周三之后。在美国，预计美联储将在十多年内首次降息至25个基点。在7月份的会议上，甚至有一些预期会减少多达50个基点的削减，目前市场正在寻求在今年年底前减少35个基点。在欧洲，由于马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）在银行举行了一次最终的费率会议，其期限定于11月结束，因此预计会有10个基点的降幅。

In EUR/USD, volatility remains rather low as prices continue to show an element of digestion thats been around for a couple of months now. After starting a bearish trend in April of last year on the back of fears around the political scenario in Italy, EUR/USD built-in support above the 1.1100 handle in the month of May , presenting a number of bear traps as sellers dried up. Since then, prices have stuck to a series of higher-highs and higher-lows through the month of June and the first-half of July.

欧元/美元，波动性仍然相当低，因为价格继续表现出消化因素已经存在了几个月。由于对意大利政治局势的恐慌导致去年4月开始出现看跌趋势，欧元/美元在5月份内部支撑位于1.1100上方，出现了一些熊市陷阱。ller干涸了。从那时起，价格在6月和7月上半月一直处于一系列的高点和高点。

On the below weekly chart of EUR/USD, the Average True Range indicator has been applied to illustrate this waning volatility as prices have continued to compress through 2019 trade.

在下面的每周欧元图表上/ USD，平均真实范围指标已用于说明这种波动性逐渐减弱，因为价格在2019年的交易中继续压缩。

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart: ATR Applied, Volatility Compression

欧元/美元每周价格走势图：ATR应用，波动率压缩

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

EUR/USD Higher-Highs, Lows Since Bear Traps in May

欧元兑美元自5月份陷入困境以来的高位回落

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The sell-off in EUR/USD was already fairly extended coming into 2019. And this year has produced a dovish flip at the Fed after the banks four rate hikes last year. This has helped to bring some USD-weakness into the mix and when combined with the longer-term oversold nature of the Euro, this allowed for a short-squeeze scenario to come into play in the month of June.

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Key for that theme form a technical basis was a range of support that‘s had some element of pull on price action since coming back into play last November. This range runs from 1.1187-1.1212, with the former of those prices functioning as the 50% marker of the 2017-2018 up-trend; and the former price is the 61.8% retracement of the ’lifetime move‘ in the Euro. That 1.1212 level has come into play during many market themes since the Euro’s inception; and current price action is continuing to base support around this level.

该主题构成技术基础的关键是一系列支持，自去年11月重新开始以来，它已经有一些拉动价格行动的因素。该范围为1.1187-1.1212，其中前者的价格为2017 - 2018年上涨趋势的50％;而前者的价格是欧元“终生移动”的61.8％回撤位。自欧元诞生以来，1.1212水平在许多市场主题中发挥作用;目前的价格行动继续在此水平附近提供支撑。

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

欧元/美元每日价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

詹姆斯·斯坦利编制的图表

EUR/USD Strategy

欧元/美元策略

At this point, the door remains open for topside swing strategies. This could be driven by expectations for a continued short-squeeze in the pair, bearish strategies around the US Dollar, or a dovish stance out of the FOMC beyond the rate cut that‘s well priced-in for later this month. Until that support zone ultimately gives way, traders are likely going to want to remain cautious around short-side stances in the pair with targets directed towards that 1.1000 big figure that hasn’t been traded at for more than two years.

此时，上门仍然敞开摇摆策略。这可能是由于对该货币对的持续短暂挤压的预期，美元周围的看跌策略，或FOMC的温和立场，超出了本月晚些时候定价良好的降息。在该支撑区最终让位之前，交易者可能会希望对该货币对中的短边立场保持谨慎态度，目标是针对1.1000这个未被交易超过两年的大数据。

EUR/USD Two-Hour Price Chart: A Month of Higher Lows as Key Support Holds Sellers at Bay

欧元/美元两小时价格走势图：由于关键支撑位在海湾的卖家持有一个月的高点

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

EUR/USD Bearish Scenarios

欧元/美元看跌情景

As mentioned above, given the adherence to support and the past month of higher-lows, EUR/USD bears will likely want to remain cautious until that longer-term zone of support gives way. But – given that we have an ECB meeting next week ahead of the FOMC, and that potential certainly exists, particularly if the bank talks up the prospect of even more QE.

如上所述，鉴于坚持支持和过去一个月的高点，欧元兑美元空头可能会继续保持谨慎，直到长期支撑区让位。但是 - 鉴于我们下周将在FOMC之前举行欧洲央行会议，而且这种潜力肯定存在，特别是如果该银行谈论更多QE的前景。

For this approach, a break of the late-June swing-low around 1.1180 could open the door for bearish breakout strategies down to 1.1120. At that point, break-even stops could be investigated with deeper target potential down to 1.1135, 1.1076 and then the big figure at 1.1000.

为此接近尾盘，突破6月底的下跌至1.1180左右可能为看跌突破策略下滑至1.1120敞开大门。此时，可以调查盈亏平衡止损，目标潜力更深，达到1.1135,1.1076，然后是1.1000的大数据。

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley