Gold Price Consolidation Sets Stage for Rally to Fresh 2019 Highs

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

• Despite rebounds in higher beta assets and higher yielding currencies alike, gold prices have maintained their elevation. Stability in the face of adversity bodes well for the future.

  尽管较高的β资产和较高收益的货币都出现反弹，黄金价格一直保持上涨。面对逆境的稳定预示着未来。

• Gold volatility, as measured by the Cboes ETF, GVZ (which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD ETF option chain) has started to perk back up.

  黄金波动，由Cboes ETF，GVZ（跟踪1个月）衡量来自GLD ETF期权链的黄金隐含波动率已开始回升。

• Retail trader positioningsuggests that the gold price rally may be set to resume.

  零售交易商定位表明黄金价格反弹可能是设置为恢复。

It‘s been nearly a week since the last substantive gold price technical analysis update, and for good reason: not much has changed. Since the week of the June Fed meeting, gold prices have traded in a 4% range since the market close on June 21; and since June 21, gold prices are up by a slight 0.8%. Despite rebounds in higher beta assets and higher yielding currencies alike, gold prices have maintained their elevation. Stability in the face of adversity – an improved environment for risk appetite – bodes well for gold’s future prospects.

自上次实质性金价技术分析更新至今已近一周，并且有充分理由：没有太大变化。自6月21日美联储会议以来，自6月21日收盘以来，黄金价格一直在4％的区间内交易;自6月21日以来，黄金价格小幅上涨0.8％。尽管较高的贝塔资产和较高的收益率货币出现反弹，黄金价格仍保持上涨。面对逆境的稳定性 - 改善风险偏好的环境 - 预示着黄金的未来前景。

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Firm Up

美联储降息预期坚挺

Both Fed funds futures and Eurodollar contracts are suggesting that the Federal Reserve will begin an aggressive interest rate cut cycle at the July 30 to 31 FOMC meeting, developments that have undergirded the most significant factor in the gold price rally since the end of May. With Fed funds pricing in greater than a 50% chance of 75-bps of rate cuts in 2019 and Eurodollar contract spreads (June 2019/December 2019) discounting -70-bps through the end of the year, expectations remain firm for more accommodative policy action. To this end, with short-term US Treasury yields biased lower over the past several months, the ongoing erosion in US real yields continues to serve as a fundamentally bullish backdrop for gold prices.

美联储基金期货和欧洲美元合约均暗示美联储将在7月30日至31日FOMC会议上开始大幅降息周期，这些发展已经成为自金融价格自年底以来黄金价格反弹中最重要因素的影响。可以。随着联邦基金定价2019年降息75个百分点的可能性超过50％，欧洲美元合约价差（2019年6月/ 2019年12月）到年底折让-70个基点，对更加宽松政策的预期仍然坚挺行动。为此，短期美国国债收益率在过去几个月有较低的偏低，美国实际收益率的持续下降继续成为金价的基本看涨背景。

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Gold Volatility Rebound Establishing a Base for Gold Prices？

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If volatility is the market's manifestation of uncertainty, gold volatility‘s expansions and contractions since the end of May can be traced back through the uncertainty created by the US-China trade war and the ensuing speculation around the Fed rate cut cycle. While other asset classes don’t like increased volatility (signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc.), precious metals tend to benefit from periods of higher volatility as uncertainty increases the appeal of gold‘s and silver’s safe haven appeal.

如果波动性是市场不确定性的表现，黄金波动的扩张和收缩自结束以来5月份可以追溯到美中贸易战带来的不确定性以及随后围绕美联储降息周期的猜测。虽然其他资产类别不喜欢波动性增加（表明现金流，股息，息票支付等方面存在更大的不确定性），但随着不确定性增加黄金和白银避风港的吸引力，贵金属往往会受益于波动性较高的时期。上诉。

GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (October 2016 to July 2019) (Chart 1)

GVZ（黄金波动率）技术分析：每日价格走势图（2016年10月至2019年7月）（图1）

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Gold volatility (as measured by the Cboes gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) remains off of its yearly high set at the end of June at 17.08, but has rebounded off of the July low at 13.00 to 14.70. Because gold volatility has failed to contract more during a time of significant strength in equity markets, it stands to reason that a base is forming for higher gold prices. The recent observation that “gold prices are proving resilient during the recent correction, a sign that recent price action has been corrective rather than the end of the longer-term bottoming effort and inverse head and shoulders” is still valid.

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Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (July 2018 to July 2019) (Chart 2)

黄金价格技术分析：日线图（2018年7月至2019年7月）（图2）

The ongoing sideways consolidation in gold prices is setting the stage to fresh 2019 highs. But not much has changed, technically speaking, since our lastgold price technical analysis update. Thus, “while the long-term forecast for gold prices remains bullish as long as the inverted head and shoulders pattern neckline is intact, traders may still want to be patient here as the odds of more weakness if not sideways price action have increased…A consolidation after an uptrend is typically the sign of a continuation effort; the sideways consolidation has a bullish bias.”

黄金价格持续横盘整理正在创造新的平台019高。但从技术上讲，自从我们的上一次价格技术分析更新以来，并未发生太大变化。因此，“虽然只要倒头肩图案领口完好无损，黄金价格的长期预测仍然看涨，但交易者可能仍希望在这里耐心，因为如果不是横向价格行动增加，则更多弱点的可能性...... A上升趋势后的盘整通常是持续努力的标志;横向整理具有看涨偏见。”

A break above 1439.14 would signal the start of the bullish continuation in the multi-month gold price rally. Furthermore, it is still valid that “unless gold prices lose 1381.62 as well as the daily 21-EMA, a moving average that hasn‘t been closed below since the bullish outside engulfing bar/key reversal on May 30, then there is still good reason to believe that the long-term bullish forecast remains valid. Even so, the inverse head and shoulders pattern neckline doesn’t come back into play until 1350 at the end of July.”

突破1439.14将表明多月金价反弹的看涨延续开始。此外，“除非黄金价格下跌1381.62以及每日21-EMA，移动平均线自5月30日看涨外线吞没杠杆/关键逆转以来尚未收盘时仍然有效，那么仍然有效”有理由相信长期看涨预测仍然有效。即便如此，逆头肩图案领口也不会在7月底重新发挥作用。

IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (July 15, 2019) (Chart 3)

IG客户情绪指数：现货金价预测（7月15,2019）（图3）

Spot gold: Retail trader data shows 65.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.93 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.4% lower than yesterday and 2.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.0% higher than yesterday and 1.2% higher from last week.

现货黄金：零售交易者数据显示65.8％的交易者是净长期的比率交易商多头做空1.93比1.交易商净多头比昨天减少2.4％，比上周减少2.5％，而交易商净空头数比昨天高2.0％，高1.2％上周。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests spot gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current spot gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待市场情绪，而交易商持续观点表明现货黄金价格可能继续下跌。然而，与上周相比，交易商净持续时间较短。近期情绪变化警告称，尽管交易商保持净多头，但目前的现货黄金价格走势可能很快反转走高。