US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, USD/CAD Set Up for USD-Weakness

US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/CAD Price Outlook Talking Points:

美元，欧元/美元，美元/加元价格展望谈话要点：

• This weeks macro-economic calendar is a bit quieter than last week. US earnings season gets started, and this will likely be the major focus for the week ahead.

  这本周的宏观经济日历比上周安静一点。美国收益季节开始，这可能是未来一周的主要焦点。

• Expectations are geared-up for a rate cut out of the Fed later this month, and last weeks Humphrey Hawkins testimony from Chair Powell pointed in this direction. Will the Fed deliver？

  期望加快降息速度美联储本月晚些时候，以及鲍威尔主席的上周Humphrey Hawkins的证词指向了这个方向。美联储会提供吗？

US Dollar Drops On Powell Testimony

鲍威尔证词上的美元贬值

This week‘s economic calendar slows down a bit from the Central Bank heavy outlay from last week. A series of Fed speakers spoke on the topic of US monetary policy, with the predominant focus being paid to Chair Powell’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. The Chair took a noticeably dovish tone in the prepared remarks and ensuing testimony, and this helped to drive US equities up to fresh all-time-highs as the S&P 500 jumped above the psychological 3k level.

本周的经济日历从上周中央银行的大量支出放缓了一点。一系列美联储发言人就美国货币政策这一主题发表了讲话，主要焦点是周三和周四主席鲍威尔的汉弗莱霍金斯证词。在准备好的言论和随后的证词中，主席采取了明显温和的语调，这有助于推动美国股市达到新的历史高点，因为标准普尔500指数突破心理3k水平。

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S&P 500 Daily Price Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

This presents an interesting scenario for the Fed‘s rate decision later this month. Last week also brought the release of inflation data out of the US, and core inflation remains above the Fed’s target of 2%. This follows jobs data from the week prior that also showed with strength, indicating that neither inflation nor employment are in dire spots at the moment. But – the Fed chair was still dovish last week, and that begs the question as to whether he/they see something that isnt yet visible in the data and, further, how much softness might the Fed bring to monetary policy in the coming months.

这为美联储本月晚些时候的利率决定提供了一个有趣的场景。上周还将通胀数据从美国撤出，核心通胀仍高于美联储2％的目标。这跟随前一周的就业数据也表现出强势，表明通货膨胀和就业都没有陷入困境此刻。但是 - 美联储主席上周仍然保持温和态度，这引出了一个问题，即他/他们是否看到了数据中尚未显示的内容，以及美联储在未来几个月内对货币政策可能带来多大的疲软。

Markets are very much geared up for a rate cut out of the Fed at the meeting that concludes on July 31. There‘s a 27.6% chance of 50 basis points of cuts at that meeting, with the remaining 72.4% probability looking for 25 basis points. Suffice it to say, if the bank doesn’t cut rates at all, there will likely be massive disappointment that could bring those equity trends into question. Thickening the drama, markets are going to have to wait until September for updated forecasts out of the bank, as the Summary of Economic projections released in June indicated the expectation for only 25 basis points of softening in the second-half of this year.

7月31日会议结束时，市场非常注重美联储降息。该会议削减50个基点的可能性为27.6％，其余72.4％的可能性为25个基点。可以这么说，如果银行根本没有降息，那么可能会出现大规模的失望，这可能会对这些股权趋势产生疑问。由于6月份发布的经济预测总结显示今年下半年仅有25个基点的疲软预期，市场将不得不等到9月才能更新预测。 / p>

FOMC Rate Expectations for July 31 Rate Decision

7月31日利率决定的FOMC利率预期

Chart prepared by James Stanley, data from CME Fedwatch

图表由James Stanley编写，数据来自CME Fedwatch

For its part, the US Dollar moved back into a bearish backdrop around last weeks Powell commentary. The month of June was a change-of-pace in the Greenback, as the strength from the prior nine months was flipped on its head. Prices in DXY broke below a rising wedge formation, which will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals. That theme of USD-weakness hung around until the end of Q2, but as the door opened into July prices bounced, and prices rallied all the way into last week.

就其本身而言，美元在上周的鲍威尔评论中重新陷入看跌背景。 6月份是美元的变化，因为前九个月的强势被推翻了。 DXY的价格突破了上升的楔形形态，通常会以看跌逆转为目标。美元疲软的主题一直持续到第二季度结束，但随着7月开盘价大幅上涨，价格一路上涨至上周。

With sellers making a marked reappearance, can USD bears continue to push for the next couple of weeks as that rate decision nears？ Underneath current price action are two nearby areas of support potential. At 96.47 is the 23.6% retracement of the 2011-2017 major move; and below that in the zone that runs from 95.86-96.03 is a confluent zone of Fibonacci levels that currently marks the three-month-lows in the currency after helping to arrest the June decline a few weeks ago.

卖家制作明显再次出现，随着利率决定的临近，美元空头能否在接下来的几周继续推动？目前的价格行动是附近两个支撑潜力区域。在96.47是2011年的23.6％回撤位2017年重大举措;在95.86-96.03之间的区域内，斐波那契水平汇合区目前是几周前帮助遏制6月份下跌后的三个月低点。

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

美元每日价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

EURUSD Holds Higher-Low Support, Carries Short-Squeeze Potential

欧元兑美元持有高位低位支撑，带来短暂的挤压潜力

The month of June was likely at least a little surprising around the Euro. While the currency remains mired by a series of bearish factors, June brought strength, particularly in EUR/USD as another newer theme took-over. This allowed for EUR/USD to jump up to fresh three-month-highs as longer-term short positions were squeezed; and if the theme of USD-weakness can stick around, there may be scope for more. I had looked into EUR/USD on Friday of last week as the pair was testing another zone of support; and that scenario remains workable into this week as prices have thus far held that level.

6月可能至少在欧元周围出现一点意外。虽然货币仍然受到一系列利空因素的影响，但6月带来了强势，特别是欧元/美元作为另一个新的主题接管。由于长期空头头寸受压，欧元/美元上涨至三个月新高;如果美元疲软的主题可以坚持下去，可能还有更多的空间。上周五我曾调查欧元/美元，因为该货币对正在测试另一个支撑区域;由于价格迄今为止保持这一水平，这种情况在本周仍然可行。

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

欧元/美元四小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

USDCAD Closes in on 1.3000 Psychological Level

USDCAD在1.3000心理水平上关闭

Perhaps a bit cleaner from a fundamental perspective, USD/CAD could present short-side interest. When the Fed started to take a dovish tilt in the month of June, the Canadian economy printed red-hot inflation numbers showing at 2.4%. So, as the US Dollar was dropping, the Canadian Dollar was surging on the back of this better-than-expected data; and that helped the pair to stick to an aggressive short-side run that broke-below a symmetrical wedge formation.

也许从基本面来看，美元/加元可能会出现短期利息。当美联储在6月开始采取温和倾向时，加拿大经济印刷的红热通胀数据显示为2.4％。因此，随着美元汇率下跌，加拿大元在这一好于预期的数据背后飙升;这有助于两人坚持在一个对称的楔形阵列下面突破的激进的短边行动。

The pair is starting the week with an aggressive push down to the 1.3000 psychological level that hasnt yet been traded at in the year of 2019. Below that, additional support potential exists around the 1.2928 area on the chart, and for traders that would like to wait for a pullback, resistance could be sought out around prior support of 1.3065.

USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart

美元/加元四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表