NZD/USD Implied Volatility Soars Ahead of RBNZ Rate Review

NZD/USD CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS

新西兰元/美元货币波动率 - 谈话要点

• NZD/USD overnight implied volatility skyrockets above 15 percent for the third time in the last 12 months

  新西兰元/美元隔夜隐含波动率突然暴涨新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）将于周三早些时候提供最新的货币政策更新，并在过去12个月内第三次增加15％

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will provide its latest monetary policy update early Wednesday and is motivating heightened expected price action in NZD forex pairs

  正在推动NZD外汇对中预期的价格走势提升

Overnight swaps are pricing in a mere 20.5 percent chance that the June RBNZ meeting this Wednesday at 2:00 GMT will reveal a 25 basis point cut to the central banks policy interest rate.Low rate cut expectations for tomorrow are likely driven largely by the relatively upbeat trade balance data report released on Monday and considering the RBNZ just cut rates at its last meeting back in May.

隔夜掉期定价只有20.5％的可能性，本周三格林威治标准时间3点的RBNZ会议将会中央银行政策利率下调25个基点。明天低利率下调的预期很可能主要是由于周一公布的相对乐观的贸易平衡数据报告以及新西兰央行刚刚在5月份的最后一次会议上降息。

Although rate traders are expecting the RBNZ to leave its overnight cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.5 percent, elevated readings on New Zealand Dollar implied volatility measures suggest that tomorrows monetary policy update will largely impact the anticipation of another rate move at the August 6 meeting.

虽然利率交易者是e鉴于新西兰联储将其隔夜现金利率（OCR）维持在1.5％不变，新西兰元隐含波动率指标的上升数据显示明天的货币政策更新将在很大程度上影响对8月6日会议上另一次利率变动的预期。

NZD/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 05, 2018 TO JUNE 25, 2019)

NZD / USD价格表：每日时间表（2018年12月5日至2019年6月25日）

Judging by NZD/USD overnight implied volatility of 15.6 percent, which is the highest reading since May 7, the currency pair is estimated to fluctuate within a 1-standard deviation trading band between 0.6596 and 0.6704. The calculated lower and upper barriers of the 109-pip range surrounding spot NZD/USD closely aligns with the 23.6 percent and 50.0 percent retracement levels of the 2019 trading range.

根据新西兰元/美元隔夜隐含波动率15.6％（这是自5月7日以来的最高读数），该货币对估计在0.6596和0.6704之间的1标准差交易区间内波动。新西兰元兑美元周围109点差距的计算下限和上限与2019年交易区间的23.6％和50.0％的回撤水平密切相关。

If the RBNZ and Governor Orr take a relatively hawkish stance on Wednesday, markets could begin to reducing bets that the central bank cuts again in August which will likely boost the kiwi and threatens to push spot NSD/USD toward the 0.67 handle. Although, upside must first overcome technical resistance posed by the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, if the RBNZ and Governor Orr choose to tee up a near-certain rate cut in August with dovish language tomorrow, it is probable that the New Zealand Dollar will swoon in response. In this case, NZD/USD threatens to push lower towards support around the psychologically-significant 0.6600 price level.

如果新西兰联储和州长奥尔在周三采取相对强硬的立场，市场可能会开始减少央行再次削减的赌注8月可能推动新西兰元走势，并有可能将现货NSD /美元推向0.67。虽然，上涨必须首先克服38.2％斐波那契回撤构成的技术阻力。相反，如果新西兰联储和州长奥尔明天选择用温和的语言来接近降息，那么新西兰元很可能会因此而大跌。在这种情况下，新西兰元/美元有可能在心理上显着的0.6600价格水平附近向支撑位下行。

SPOT NZD/USD TRADER SENTIMENT

SPOT NZD / USD TRADER SENTIMENT

According to IG Client Sentiment data, 70.7 percent of retail traders are net-long spot NZD/USD resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 2.41. Yet, relative to last week, the number of traders net-long is 31.0 percent lower while the number of traders net-short is 7.3 percent higher. As retail trader positioning data is generally interpreted with a contrarian lens, recent changes in spot NZD/USD positioning could hint that the New Zealand Dollars climb since June 14 may soon reverse lower.

根据IG客户情绪数据，70.7％的零售交易商是净多头新西兰元/美元，因此长期与空头比率为2.41。然而，相对于上周，交易商净多头减少了31.0％，而交易商净空头数量增加了7.3％。由于零售交易商的定位数据通常用逆向镜头来解释，最近新西兰元/美元现货定位的变化可能暗示新西兰元自6月14日以来的攀升可能很快反转走低。