Dwindling German IFO Business Climate Survey to Rattle EURUSD Rally

Trading the News: German IFO Business Climate

交易新闻：德国IFO商业景气

Updates to Germanys IFO Business Climate survey may rattle the recent rally in EURUSD as the index is expected to narrow for the third consecutive month in June.

德国IFO商业环境调查的最新动态可能会对近期欧元兑美元的涨势产生不利影响，因为该指数预计会缩小六月连续第三个月。

A print of 97.5 or lower may produce headwinds for the Euro as it dampens the outlook for growth and puts pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further insulate the monetary union.

97.5或更低的印数可能会对欧元产生阻力，因为它会抑制增长前景和看跌期权欧洲央行（ECB）要求进一步隔离货币联盟的压力。

In turn the, the ECB may show a greater willingness to implement a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) for the Main Refinance Rate, its flagship benchmark for borrowing costs, as President Mario Draghi insists that “further cuts in policy interest rates and mitigating measures to contain any side effects remain part of our tools.”

反过来，欧洲央行可能表现出更大的意愿实施负利率政策（NIRP）主要再融资利率是其借贷成本的旗舰基准，因为总统马里奥·德拉吉坚持认为“进一步削减政策利率和减轻措施以遏制任何副作用仍然是我们工具的一部分。”

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However, a positive development may keep the ECB on the sidelines, and the Governing Council may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting on July 25 as the central bank prepares to launch another round of Targeted Long-Term Refinance Operations (TLTRO) in September.

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Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

注册并加入DailyFX货币策略师David Song LIVE，有机会讨论围绕外汇市场的关键主题和潜在交易设置。

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Impact that the IFO Business Climate survey had on EUR/USD during the last release

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May 2019 German IFO Business Climate

期间 数据已发布 估计 实际 点数变化（1活动后一小时） 点数变化（日后事件结束） 2019年5月 05/23/2019 08： 00:00 GMT 99.1 97.9 -5 +41 2019年5月德国IFO商业气候

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

EUR / USD 5分钟图表

Germanys IFO Business Climate survey narrowed more-than-expected in May, with the index slipping to 97.9 from 99.2 the month prior. A deeper look at the report showed the gauge for current conditions also falling to 100.6 from a revised 103.4 in April, while the index for future expectations unexpectedly held steady at 95.3 amid projections for a 95.0 print.

德国IFO商业景气调查5月收窄超预期，该指数从前一个月的99.2跌至97.9。对该报告的深入研究显示，当前状况的指标也从4月修正后的103.4降至100.6，在预测95.0的情况下，未来预期指数出乎意料地稳定在95.3。

The Euro struggled to hold its ground following the mixed data prints, but the market reaction was short-lived, with EURUSD bouncing back during the North American session to close the day at 1.1182. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

欧元在混合数据印刷后挣扎着坚持下去，但市场反应很短暂生活，欧元兑美元在北美时段反弹，收盘于1.1182。通过DailyFX交易新闻高级指南了解更多信息。

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

欧元兑美元汇率每日走势图

• Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EURUSD is no longer tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) break out of the bearish formations from earlier this year.

  请记住，更广阔的前景由于价格和相对强弱指数（RSI）突破了今年早些时候的看跌形态，欧元兑美元不再向下倾斜。

• With that said, EURUSD stands at risk for a larger correction as the exchange rate clears the April-high (1.1324) after failing to test the 1.1000 (78.6% expansion) handle.

  话虽如此，欧元兑美元有望进行更大幅度的修正，因汇率在未能测试1.1000（78.6％扩张）的情况下清除了4月高位（1.1324）。

• The break/close above 1.1340 (38.2% expansion) brings the 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) region on the radar as the exchange rate extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week, with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1430 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1450 (50% expansion).

  突破/收盘高于1.1340（扩张38.2％）带来1.1390（61.8％回撤位）至1.1400（50％扩张）区域，因为汇率延续了一系列较高的高点和低点上一周，下一个感兴趣的区域在1.1430附近（扩张23.6％）到1.1450（扩张50％）。