Gold Weekly Forecast: A Perfect Storm of Rates and Risk

Gold Talking Points

Gold Talking Points

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• Low inflation, low interest rates and increased risk, a gold bulls dream.

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• If the next resistance level is broken convincingly, gold may push back to $1,500/oz.+

  如果下一个阻力位被令人信服地突破，黄金可能会回到1,500美元/盎司。+

Q2 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunity

2019年第二季度黄金预测和最佳交易机会

Fundamental Forecast for the Gold: Neutral

黄金的基本预测：中性

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The fundamental outlook for gold next week is neutral but for the medium-term prices are likely to move higher. The neutral forecast for the w/c June 24 is predicated on the velocity of this weeks move – up 5.9% at one stage low-to-high - which needs to be tempered before the bullish momentum resumes. The market is also extremely overbought using the daily CCI indicator.

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Gold One-Hour Timeframe w/c June 17, 2019

2019年6月17日黄金一小时时间框架

This week both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (FED) confirmed recent market thinking, that interest rates are going to move, and stay, lower for longer as growth and price pressures remain longer-term concerns. ECB President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday that all monetary tools remain at his disposal, mentioning lower rates and a potential re-start of the quantitative easing program, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to a 0.25% rate cut in July with one or potentially two more interest rate cuts this year. Lower interest rates however are here to stay, boosting the positive medium-term outlook, while inflation will likely remain stubbornly low for a long time. Against this backdrop, gold comes into its own as an asset class, especially with the US dollar weakening alongside lowered interest-rate expectations.

本周，欧洲央行（ECB）和美国联邦储备委员会（FED）都证实了最近的市场思路，即利率随着经济增长而持续下降价格压力仍然是长期担忧。欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉周二表示，所有货币工具仍然可供他支配，提及较低的利率和潜在的重新启动量化宽松计划，而美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔指出7月降息0.25％，其中一个或可能是两个今年降息幅度更大。然而，较低的利率将保持不变，推动中期前景看好，而通胀在很长一段时间内可能仍然处于低位。在这种背景下，黄金成为一种资产类别，e此外，由于美国和伊朗之间的紧张关系在一段时间内走高，因此美元和伊朗之间的紧张局势进一步加剧，因此美元走弱以及降低利率预期。

Professional traders would have enjoyed the week with the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (CoT) showing gold long positions increasing further.

专业交易员将享受本周最新的CFTC交易商承诺报告（CoT）黄金多头头寸进一步增加。

The Predictive Power of the CoT Report

CoT报告的预测能力

The DailyFX Economic Calendar covers all market moving data releases and events.

DailyFX经济日历涵盖所有市场移动数据发布和事件。

The daily chart shows that gold touched its highest level in around six years this week, opening the way for further moves higher. The next level of resistance is at $1,433/oz. before an old gap created back on a bear candle in April 2013 comes into play between $1,495/oz. and $1,540/oz. The CCI indicator, mentioned earlier, highlights the risk of a short-term pull-back.

日线图显示黄金本周触及六年来的最高水平，为进一步走高开辟了道路。下一阻力位在1,433美元/盎司。在2013年4月在熊蜡烛上创造的旧差距发挥作用之前，在1,495美元/盎司之间发挥作用。和1,540美元/盎司。前面提到的CCI指标突显了短期回调的风险。

Gold Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – June 21, 2019) – CCI Indicator Extreme Overbought Territory

黄金每日价格走势图（2018年5月 - 2019年6月21日） - CCI指标极度超买地区