Crude Oil Price Test of Downtrend May Determine USDCADs Next Move

Crude Oil Price Talking Points:

原油价格谈话要点：

• USDCAD prices have been under pressure throughout June, mirroring weakness in the DXY Index amid rising Fed rate cut odds.

  6月份美元兑加元价格一直处于压力之下美联储降息的可能性导致美元指数走弱。

• Recent crude oil price gains may be tied to relaxed tensions after the Mexico tariffs were “suspended indefinitely”; little reason otherwise.

  近期原油价格上涨可能与墨西哥关税“暂停”后的宽松紧张局势有关无止境;没有其他理由。

• Recent changes in retail trader positioning suggest that both USDCAD and crude oil prices are susceptible to further losses – an unusual set of circumstances.

  零售交易商定位的近期变化表明美元兑加元和原油价格都容易受到进一步损失 - 这是一种不同寻常的情况。

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Crude oil prices have traded marginally higher throughout June, with prices trading in a 7.7% range over the first six-plus trading days of the month. With the OPEC+ production cut extension looking like it may not continue past the end of the month, fresh global oversupply concerns are weighing down crude oil prices at a time when slowing global growth concerns are rising.

6月原油价格小幅走高，价格在本月的前六个交易日内交易区间为7.7％。由于石油输出国组织（OPEC）的产量减产看起来可能不会持续到月底，因此全球供应过剩担忧正在加剧，全球供应过剩的担忧正在压低原油价格。

The broad turn in market sentiment midweek last week may be the main reason for the crude oil price rally – more so than any reason specifically attributable to energy markets themselves.

上周中期市场情绪的大幅转变可能是原油价格上涨的主要原因 - 比能源市场本身特别重要的原因更多。

With Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling the FOMCs willingness to introduce lower interest rates to stave off the impact of the US-led trade wars, risk appetite rebounded broadly led by higher US equities and a weaker US Dollar. In turn, crude oil prices were able to stabilize around the 23.6% retracement of the 2018 high/low range at 50.49.

随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示FOMC愿意推出较低的利率以避免美国主导的贸易战的影响，风险偏好在美国股市上涨和美国疲软的带动下大幅反弹美元。反过来，原油价格能够稳定在2018年高点/低点50.4的23.6％回撤位附近。

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (September 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 1)

原油技术分析：每日价格走势图（2018年9月至2019年6月）（图1）

But the rally over the past few days doesnt mean that crude oil prices are out of the woods just yet. In our last update on May 29, we noted that “a bearish bias is appropriate until crude oil prices return back above the daily 8-EMA.”

但过去几天的反弹并不意味着原油价格已经走出困境然而。我们的拉斯维加斯5月29日更新，我们注意到“在原油价格回到每日8-EMA之上之前，看跌偏见是合适的。”

As it were, crude oil prices have stayed below the daily 8-EMA since then, as they have closed every session since May 22. It thus still holds that until the daily 8-EMA is cleared out (currently at 54.00) its too soon to say that the crude oil price rebound is anything more than a correction.

原来，原油价格一直保持不变自那时以来每日8-EMA以下，因为它们自5月22日以来已经关闭了每个交易日。因此，在每日8-EMA被清算（目前为54.00）之前，它仍然认为原油价格反弹的时间太早了。不仅仅是纠正。

IG Client Sentiment Index: Crude Oil Price Forecast (June 11, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：原油价格预测（2019年6月11日）（图2）

Crude oil: Retail trader data shows 72.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.69 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 22 when crude oil traded near 6263.8; price has moved 14.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.6% higher than yesterday and 2.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.9% higher than yesterday and 4.2% higher from last week.

原油：零售交易商数据显示，72.9％的交易者为净多头，交易者多头做空比率为2.69比1.事实上，交易商自5月以来一直保持净多头22当原油交易在6263.8附近;此后价格已下跌14.2％。交易商净多头比昨天增加8.6％，比上周增加2.6％，而交易商净空头数比昨天增加4.9％，比上周增加4.2％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests crude oil prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger crude oil contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待市场情绪，而交易商持续观点表明原油价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们原油逆势交易偏向增强。

USDCAD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (September 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 3)

美元兑加元技术分析：每日报价图表（2018年9月至2019年6月）（图3）

Amid all of the US Dollar selling pressure in June, USDCAD prices have plunged through key technical support. The break below 1.3377 would constituted a break of the consolidation as well as a break of the uptrend from February, March, and April 2019 swing lows. The gain in crude oil prices over the past week has been a significant factor weighing down USDCAD.

在6月份所有美元抛售压力下，美元兑加元价格暴跌通过关键技术支持。跌破1.3377将构成盘整的突破以及从2月开始的上升趋势突破rch，和2019年4月的低点。过去一周原油价格的上涨是影响美元兑加元走势的一个重要因素。

It‘s clear then why crude oil price’s test of its daily 8-EMA is so crucial for USDCAD: if crude oil prices break higher, the likelihood increases of USDCAD continuing lower through the mid-March swing low of 1.3251 goes up; if crude oil prices stay below the daily 8-EMA, then the odds increase of USDCAD rebounding to the 1.3327/47 area (38.2% retracement of 2018 high/low range, uptrend from February, March, and April 2019 swing lows, and daily 8-EMA).

原因很明显为什么原油价格对其每日8-EMA的测试如此对美元兑加元至关重要：如果原油价格突破走高，美元兑加元在3月中旬摆动低点1.3251的可能上涨持续走低;如果原油价格保持在每日8-EMA以下，那么美元兑加元反弹至1.3327 / 47区域的可能性增加（2018年高点/低点区间的38.2％回撤位，2019年2月，3月和4月的上升趋势，以及每日8-EMA）。

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDCAD Price Forecast (June 11, 2019) (Chart 4)

IG客户情绪指数：美元加元价格预测（2019年6月11日）（图4）

USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 54.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.17 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 15.0% higher than yesterday and 67.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.7% higher than yesterday and 26.9% lower from last week.

美元兑加元：零售交易者数据显示，54.0％的交易者为净多头，交易者多头做空比率为1.17比1.交易者净多头比昨天高15.0％交易商净空头数比上周增加了11.7％，比上周减少了26.9％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆势观点人群情绪，以及交易商净持续时间表明美元兑加元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们对美元兑加元的利空交易偏见更加强烈。