Gold Price Outlook: A Week Packed Full of Major Risk Events and Data

Gold Price (XAU) Talking Points:

黄金价格（XAU）谈话要点：

• BoE and FOMC rate decisions and US NFPs dominate the landscape.

  BoE和FOMC利率决定和美国非农就业数据占据主导地位。

• Golden Week in Japan will drain liquidity in Asian hours.

  日本黄金周将在亚洲时段消耗流动性。

The DailyFX Q2EUR Forecast is available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Gold.

可以下载DailyFX Q2EUR预测，包括我们的中期短期黄金预测。

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

黄金基本预测：中性

A very busy week ahead with the calendar packed full of market data and events across the globe. In addition, all next week, and the Monday after, Japan will be closed celebrating ‘Golden Week’ thinning liquidity in Asian hours, leaving markets vulnerable to ‘spike’ moves. In such conditions, gold would normally grab a bid but with the US dollar continuing to weigh on the precious metal, a neutral stance looks justified.

一个非常繁忙的一周，日历上到处都是市场数据和事件。此外，在下周和周一之后，日本将关闭庆祝“黄金周”在亚洲时段减少流动性，使市场容易受到“飙升”的影响。在这种情况下，黄金通常会收购，但随着美元继续对贵金属构成压力，中立的立场看起来是合理的。

A look at the calendar below will show that there are a 28 ‘high importance’ data releases and events, all of which could change the risk landscape. A few highlights include, the latest interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, the monthly US Labour report and various GDP and inflation releases across the Euro-Zone.

看下面的日历将会显示有28个'高度重要'的数据发布和事件，所有这些都可能改变风险格局。一些亮点包括英格兰银行和美联储的最新利率决定，美国劳工月度报告以及欧元区各种GDP和通胀数据。

DailyFX Economic Calendar

DailyFX经济日历

Gold has bounced off a multi-month low of $1,266/oz made this Tuesday but remains under pressure, primarily from a strong US dollar. The first look at Q1 GDP showed q/q growth of 3.2%, sharply higher than expectations around 2.3%, but the greenback has sold off going into the weekend after having made a fresh 23-month high earlier in the session. While some technical indicators suggest the US dollar is overbought, a bout of expectation-beating data could see the USD turn higher again, pushing gold lower. On the flip-side, dovish commentary from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday may prompt further profit-taking.

本周二黄金已经从多个月的低点1266美元/盎司反弹，但仍然面临压力，主要来自强势美元。第一季度国内生产总值的增长率为3.2％，大幅高于预期的2.3％左右，但美元在本周末创下23个月新高之后已经卖出周末。虽然一些技术指标表明美元处于超买状态，但一揽子预期数据可能会让美元再次走高，推动黄金走低。另一方面，周三FOMC会议的鸽派评论可能会促使进一步获利

Gold Daily Price Chart – April 26, 2019

黄金每日价格走势图 - 2019年4月26日

IG Client Sentiment data show 76.0% of traders are net-long gold. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests that gold prices may fall further.

IG Client Sentiment数据显示76.0％的交易者是净多头的黄金。我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而交易员净持续时间表明黄金价格可能进一步下跌。