Australian Dollar Faces The Big One As Official CPI Numbers Loom

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

基本澳元预测：看跌

• The Australian Dollar remains just above last years long downtrend

  澳元仍高于去年的水平长期下降趋势

• Much of this pep is down to global factors rather than domestic ones

  这个问题很大程度上取决于全球因素而不是国内因素

• First quarter inflation data may underline this point rather well

  第一季度的通胀数据可能会更好地强调这一点

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollars prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

了解零售外汇交易商对澳元的前景的看法现在，实时，在DailyFX情绪页面上

The Australian Dollar endured some divergent economic indicators last week but in the coming sessions is likely to focus on only one domestic marker- inflation.

澳元在上周经历了一些不同的经济指标，但在接下来的会议中可能只关注一个国内指标 - 通货膨胀。{/}

It seems slightly incredible that we should in April still be waiting for this year‘s first official Consumer Price Index print from the country. However, thanks to the Australian Bureau of Statistic’s quirk of releasing data quarterly rather than monthly data, we are.

4月份我们应该等待今年该国第一份官方消费物价指数的印刷品似乎有点令人难以置信。但是，由于澳大利亚统计局每季度发布数据而不是每月数据的怪癖，我们都是。

That wait ends at last on Wednesday.

等待在周三结束。

The final quarter of 2018 found inflation rising at an annualized 1.8%. That meant it was well below the Reserve Bank of Australia‘s 2-3% target band. Indeed, that band has been elusive since 2014 and has remained so latterly even with interest rates at their current, record lows. The Official Cash Rate is 1.50%, as it has been since August 2016. The RBA has fretted inflation’s weakness for much of this year, and an uptick seems unlikely this time around.

2018年的最后一个季度发现通货膨胀率年率上升1.8％。这意味着它远低于澳大利亚储备银行2-3％的目标区间。事实上，自2014年以来，这支乐队一直难以捉摸，而且即使利率处于目前的历史低位，它仍然如此。官方现金利率为自2016年8月以来的1.50％。澳洲联储在今年的大部分时间里一直担心通胀的疲软，而且此次上涨似乎不太可能。

Wednesdays number is unlikely to break the degree of stasis currently besetting the Australian Dollar and keeping it range bound against its US cousin.

周三的数字不大可能打破目前困扰澳元的停滞程度，并保持其与美国表亲的区间。

So far, those forces have found an equilibrium point above last year‘s pervasive downtrend. This week probably won’t see that equilibrium damaged, unless inflation provides a big shock either way. A strong print, coupled with last weeks very punchy employment numbers could even see current rate-cut forecasts repriced upward a little. Conversely more weakness could see that AUD/USD downtrend back in play.

到目前为止，这些力量已经找到了一个高于去年普遍下行趋势的均衡点。本周可能不会看到这种均衡受损，除非通胀提供了大量支持无论哪种方式。强劲的印刷品，加上上周非常强劲的就业数据，甚至可以看到目前的降息预测略微上调。相反，更多的疲软可能会看到澳元/美元下跌回到正常水平。

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On the basis that the latter is probably more likely, its a bearish call this week.

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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

--- David Cottle撰稿，DailyFX Research