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Abstract:For June 2024, Canada's CPI rose by 2.7% year-over-year, down from 2.9% previously. This decrease in core inflation is driven by a combination of slower economic growth and moderated wage growth, even with a strong labor market. The FOMC meeting minutes from July 2024 indicated that the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 5.25% to 5.50% and revealed a shift in the Fed's focus. The latest data on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, for the week ending...
The Week Ahead: Week of 19August (GMT+2)
Quiet Before the Storm?Markets Poised for a Relaxed Week
Tuesday, 20 August 2024, 14:30
Canada CPI (YoY) (Jul)
For June 2024, Canada's CPI rose by 2.7% year-over-year, down from 2.9% previously. This decrease in core inflation is driven by a combination of slower economic growth and moderated wage growth, even with a strong labor market. With the current monetary policy and expectations of slowing growth, the upcoming data release is expected to reflect ongoing slowdown with a slight decline.
Wednesday, 21 August 2024, 20:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The FOMC meeting minutes from July 2024 indicated that the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 5.25% to 5.50% and revealed a shift in the Fed's focus. Previously, the emphasis was primarily on managing inflation risks. However, the latest statement reflects a more balanced view, considering both inflation and employment, which aligns with the Feds dual mandate. The upcoming release will likely reiterate on Fed cautious stance and focus on evaluating new economic data to determine whether further adjustments to the monetary policy are necessary.
Thursday, 22 August 2024, 14:30
US Initial Jobless Claims
The latest U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, released on August 15, 2024, indicates that claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending August 10, down from 243,000 the previous week. This decline points to some stabilization in the labor market, despite broader economic uncertainties. Layoffs remain historically low, with much of the slowdown in the labor market coming from businesses scaling back hiring, trailing an immigration-induced surge in labor supply. Following current conditions, the upcoming data is expected to remain within a similar range unless significant disruption occurs.
Thursday, 22 August 2024, 15:45
US Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
For July, The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2024 was reported at 49.6, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector as it fell below the 50 mark. This was a decline from the previous month's reading of 51.6, signaling a worsening trend in manufacturing activity.The primary factors behind this decline include a reduction in new orders and production, as well as continued uncertainty in the economic environment.Survey respondents highlighted weaker consumer spending and reduced customer orders, which have been contributing to the sector's sluggish performance The upcoming PMI is likely to remain under pressure as manufacturing sector may not see significant recovery until after the election cycle, as businesses await clearer signals on economic policy
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The U.S Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, which was slightly above market expectations of 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% during its last meeting on July 2024, which was consistent with market expectations. As of June 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a modest increase of 3.0% year-over-year, weaker than market expectation and previous reading of 3.1% and 3.3%..
he U.S. equity market continued its rally in yesterday's session, with the Dow Jones approaching its all-time high near the 41,000 mark. The Russell 2000 (US2000) small-cap index surged more than 10% since last Thursday, suggesting that strategists have been rotating their exposure to small-cap counters, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes.
In May, Canada's Consumer Price Index rose by 0.6%, surpassing both market forecasts of 0.6% and the previous figure of 0.5%. Statistics Canada attributes this increase primarily to higher food prices, especially for wheat-based products, which exerted notable inflationary pressures. The latest U.S. retail sales data for May 2024 shows a modest 0.1% month-over-month increase, a slight improvement following the previous month's 0.2% decline. This growth is driven by a gradual rise in sales...
This week's major events include Powell's cautious outlook on rate cuts, TSMC's gains amid Samsung's strike, and Putin's diplomatic efforts. In China, the PBOC prepares bond interventions, while Korea's Hahn & Co. raises $3.4 billion. Deflationary pressures persist in China. US and European legal and regulatory changes impact market sentiment. Key data releases are NFIB Small Business Optimism, Core CPI, PPI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment for the USA.