U.S. banks highlight office real estate as next big worry

(Reuters) – Some of the largest U.S. banks singled out office commercial real estate on Friday as an area of growing concern, with property values falling and more borrowers defaulting on their loans amid rising interest rates and a slowing economy.

（路透社）——周五，一些美国最大的银行将写字楼商业房地产列为一个日益令人担忧的领域，在利率上升和经济放缓的情况下，房地产价值下降，更多借款人拖欠贷款。

Faced with questions from analysts about their exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) and potential of losses, executives at Wells Fargo & Co, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co said conditions were getting worse for the sector.

面对分析师关于商业房地产 (cre) 敞口和潜在亏损的问题，富国银行、花旗集团和摩根大通的高管表示，该行业的情况正在恶化。

“Weakness continues to develop in commercial real estate office,” Wells Fargo Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said on a call with analysts. The bank set aside an additional $643 million in the first quarter for credit losses, mainly driven by expectations of higher CRE loan losses.

“商业地产办公室的疲软继续发展，”富国银行首席执行官查理沙夫在与分析师的电话会议上表示。该银行在第一季度额外拨备了 6.43 亿美元用于信贷损失，主要是受 cre 贷款损失增加的预期推动。

Stress in the commercial real estate sector could have broad implications for banks and the economy, as losses emanating there can tighten credit availability and exacerbate a downturn.

商业房地产行业的压力可能对银行和经济产生广泛影响，因为该行业产生的损失可能会收紧信贷供应并加剧经济下滑。

JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said he expected tighter lending conditions, most of it around “certain real estate things” and that “increases the odds of a recession.”

摩根大通首席执行官杰米戴蒙表示，他预计贷款条件会收紧，其中大部分是围绕“某些房地产问题”，并且“会增加经济衰退的可能性”。

Banks represent 54% of the overall $5.7 trillion CRE market, with the small lenders holding 70% of CRE loans, according to Citigroup analysts. More than $1.4 trillion in U.S. CRE loans will mature by 2027, with some $270 billion coming due this year, according to real estate data provider Trepp.

据花旗集团分析师称，银行占 5.7 万亿美元 cre 市场的 54%，而小型银行持有 70% 的 cre 贷款。根据房地产数据提供商 trepp 的数据，到 2027 年，超过 1.4 万亿美元的美国 cre 贷款将到期，其中约 2700 亿美元将在今年到期。

Loans backed by offices make up the biggest share of the maturing debt load, followed by multifamily and retail properties. The question now facing many borrowers is whether they can refinance or restructure loans to avoid default, bankers and analysts said. Older properties with high vacancies face the greatest refinancing challenge, they said.

由写字楼支持的贷款占到期债务负担的最大份额，其次是多户住宅和零售物业。银行家和分析师表示，许多借款人现在面临的问题是他们是否可以通过再融资或重组贷款来避免违约。他们说，空置率高的旧房产面临着最大的再融资挑战。

“Office properties are currently facing the greatest refinancing risks” as companies reassess their needs, said John Guarnera, an analyst at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

rbc bluebay asset management 的分析师 john guarnera 表示，随着公司重新评估他们的需求，“写字楼物业目前面临着最大的再融资风险”。

Major cities

主要城市

Bankers and analysts said the greatest stress in the office sector is likely to be felt in major cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Seattle.

银行家和分析师表示，旧金山、洛杉矶、纽约和西雅图等大城市可能会感受到写字楼行业的最大压力。

“The regions with the highest level of office stress are located in the Northeast and tech-heavy West Coast,” while southern cities have a lower share of risky loans, said Stephen Buschbom, research director at Trepp.

“办公室压力最高的地区位于东北部和科技密集的西海岸，”而南部城市的风险贷款比例较低，trepp 研究总监斯蒂芬·布施博姆 (stephen buschbom) 表示。

As the epicenter for the technology industry downturn, Californias CRE market has been hit hard. San Francisco and Los Angeles had an average office vacancy rate of 21.6% in the first quarter, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield. Loans for San Francisco offices now face the highest risk of default of all U.S. metro areas, according to Trepp.

作为科技行业低迷的震中，加州的cre市场受到重创。根据 cushman & wakefield 的数据，旧金山和洛杉矶第一季度的平均办公室空置率为 21.6%。根据 trepp 的说法，旧金山办事处的贷款现在面临着美国所有大都市地区最高的违约风险。

A subsidiary of asset manager Brookfield Corp, for example, defaulted in February on $783 million in loans linked to two Los Angeles buildings, a filing showed. Citigroup and Wells Fargo were among the initial lenders.

例如，一份文件显示，资产管理公司 brookfield corp 的一家子公司在 2 月份拖欠了与洛杉矶两栋建筑相关的 7.83 亿美元贷款。花旗集团和富国银行是最初的贷方之一。

Citigroup and Wells Fargo declined to comment for this article. Brookfield did not respond to a request for comment.

花旗集团和富国银行拒绝就本文置评。布鲁克菲尔德没有回应置评请求。

On an analyst call, Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said the office market was showing “signs of weakness due to lower demand, higher financing costs and challenging capital market conditions.”

在分析师电话会议上，富国银行首席财务官 mike santomassimo 表示，写字楼市场正显示出“由于需求下降、融资成本上升和资本市场条件具有挑战性而出现疲软迹象”。

“While we havent seen this translate to meaningful loss content yet, we expect to see more stress over time,” he said.

“虽然我们还没有看到这转化为有意义的损失内容，但我们预计随着时间的推移会看到更多的压力，”他说。

PNC Financial Services Group Inc Chief Financial Officer Robert Reilly said its team was reviewing each asset in its office portfolio.

pnc financial services group inc 首席财务官罗伯特赖利表示，其团队正在审查其办公室投资组合中的每项资产。

The lender was stress testing property performance to “set realistic expectations” and had “significantly discounted” income levels and property values “across the entire office book,” he said.

他说，该贷方正在对房地产业绩进行压力测试，以“设定切合实际的预期”，并“大幅降低”整个办公账簿的收入水平和房地产价值。

(Reporting by Matt Tracy and Saeed Azhar; Editing by Lananh Nguyen, Paritosh Bansal and Aurora Ellis)

（matt tracy 和 saeed azhar 报道；lananh nguyen、paritosh bansal 和 aurora ellis 编辑）