Kuroda departs BOJ after inflation fails to fly like ‘Peter Pan’

TOKYO (Reuters) – Haruhiko Kuroda delivers his last press conference as Japans central bank chief on Friday, ending a decade of unconventional policy that included “bazooka” stimulus and a push to change public perceptions with a wall of money and Peter Pan metaphors.

东京（路透社）——周五，黑田东彦发表了他作为日本央行行长的最后一次新闻发布会，结束了十年来的非常规政策，其中包括“火箭筒”刺激措施以及用金钱墙和彼得潘隐喻改变公众看法的努力。

Hand-picked by then premier Shinzo Abe to break Japan out of deflation, Kuroda will see his second, five-year term end on Saturday and hand over the baton to his successor Kazuo Ueda.

由当时的首相安倍晋三亲手挑选来帮助日本摆脱通货紧缩的黑田东彦将在周六迎来他的第二个五年任期，并将接力棒交给他的继任者上田和夫。

The 78-year-old gives his press conference at 0630GMT, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said.

日本央行 (boj) 表示，现年 78 岁的他将在格林威治标准时间 0630 举行新闻发布会。

Shock therapy was among the key features of Kurodas monetary experiment, under which the BOJ deployed a huge asset-buying programme in 2013 partly to convince the public that prices will finally start to rise after decades of deflation.

休克疗法是 kurodas 货币试验的主要特征之一，根据该试验，日本央行在 2013 年部署了一项庞大的资产购买计划，部分原因是为了让公众相信，经过数十年的通货紧缩后，物价最终将开始上涨。

Kuroda was not the first BOJ chief to attempt to influence public perceptions with monetary easing. Toshihiko Fukui, who presided from 2003 to 2008, frequently expanded quantitative easing to “show the BOJs determination to beat deflation” and “exert stronger influence on public expectations.”

黑田东彦并不是第一位试图通过货币宽松政策影响公众看法的日本央行行长。 2003年至2008年任主席的福井俊彦频频扩大量化宽松，以“显示日本央行战胜通货紧缩的决心”，“对公众预期施加更大影响”。

But Kuroda went a step further by binding policy to his 2% inflation target and setting a two-year timeframe for meeting the goal. The target remained elusive only until recently, when the war in Ukraine boosted global commodity prices and pushed inflation well above 2%.

但黑田东彦更进一步，将政策与他的 2% 通胀目标结合起来，并设定了实现该目标的两年时间框架。直到最近，乌克兰战争推高了全球大宗商品价格并将通货膨胀率推高至 2% 以上，这个目标才一直难以实现。

Simple communication was also a key feature of Kurodas policy. In 2015, he alluded to the Peter Pan fairy tale in explaining that to fire up inflation, the BOJ needed to have the public believe in its monetary magic with massive stimulus.

简单的沟通也是黑田东彦政策的一个关键特征。 2015 年，他提到彼得潘童话，解释说要刺激通胀，日本央行需要通过大规模刺激让公众相信其货币魔法。

“I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it’,” he said back then. “Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction.”

“我相信你们中的许多人都熟悉彼得潘的故事，它说，'当你怀疑自己是否会飞的那一刻，你就永远无法做到'，”他当时说。 “是的，我们需要的是积极的态度和信念。”

In another speech that year, Kuroda described how, like a spacecraft attempting to move away from Earth‘s gravitation, “tremendous velocity” was needed to end Japan’s deflationary equilibrium.

在那年的另一场演讲中，黑田东彦描述了如何像试图摆脱地球引力的宇宙飞船一样，需要“巨大的速度”来结束日本的通货紧缩平衡。

When allusions to Peter Pan and spacecraft failed, the BOJ shifted to a defensive, long-term approach in 2016 with the introduction of yield curve control (YCC). The hope was that by capping long-term rates around zero and patiently reflating the economy, inflation would eventually perk up.

当对彼得潘和航天器的暗示失败时，日本央行在 2016 年转向防御性的长期方法，引入了收益率曲线控制 (ycc)。希望通过将长期利率限制在零附近并耐心地使经济再膨胀，通货膨胀最终会上升。

The shift to YCC also sought to stop super-long yields from falling too much, a nod to growing concern that prolonged low rates could hurt financial institutions profits enough to discourage them from boosting lending.

向 ycc 的转变还试图阻止超长期收益率下降太多，这是对人们越来越担心长期低利率可能损害金融机构利润，足以阻止它们增加贷款的一种认可。

“The BOJs thinking on interest rate changed dramatically in 2016. It abandoned the idea that the lower the borrowing costs, the better,” said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi.

“日本央行对利率的看法在 2016 年发生了巨大变化。它放弃了借贷成本越低越好的想法，”前日本央行董事会成员 takahide kiuchi 表示。

While the BOJ continues its battle propping up inflation and wages, other major central banks have seen their credibility on the line as they struggle to tame soaring inflation.

在日本央行继续努力支撑通胀和工资的同时，其他主要央行在努力抑制飙升的通胀时已经看到了他们的信誉。

If Japan sees inflation sustainably hitting 2%, incoming BOJ chief Ueda will face a fresh communication challenge of steering a smooth exit from his predecessors radical stimulus.

如果日本通胀率持续达到 2%，即将上任的日本央行行长上田将面临新的沟通挑战，即引导其前任的激进刺激计划顺利退出。

“During Kuroda‘s era, the BOJ put in place a mix bag of unconventional measures,” Kiuchi said. “The BOJ’s failure to change public expectations raises a lot of questions about the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy.”

“在黑田东彦的时代，日本央行实施了一系列非常规措施，”木内说。 “日本央行未能改变公众预期，引发了很多关于非常规货币政策有效性的问题。”

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam Holmes)

（leika kihara 报道；sam holmes 编辑）