Marketmind: As banking worries slowly slip into rear view, markets fret on Fed

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

ankur banerjee 展望欧洲和全球市场的未来

With sentiment still fragile in the aftermath of the banking crisis, a risk-on rally proved short-lived, leaving the MSCI ex-Japan index swinging between gains and losses on Thursday. The dollar firmed up, continuing its rebound, while gold eased.

由于银行业危机过后市场情绪依然脆弱，风险偏好的反弹被证明是短暂的，导致 msci（日本除外）指数周四在涨跌之间摇摆。美元走强，继续反弹，而黄金下跌。

But as we are at the ‘no news = good news’ stage of the recovery from the banking worries, investors are preparing to try again as Europe wakes up with futures indicating a higher open.

但由于我们正处于从银行业忧虑中复苏的“无消息 = 好消息”阶段，投资者正准备再次尝试，因为欧洲醒来时期货显示开盘走高。

Much of the market exuberance of the past couple of days came after Alibaba Group unveiled plans to split up, a move investors cheered in the hope that the worst for the Chinese tech sector is over. In a call to discuss the plan to split into six units, Group CEO Daniel Zhang said on Thursday the companys breakup plan will allow its units to become more agile and eventually list on their own.

过去几天的大部分市场繁荣都发生在阿里巴巴集团公布分拆计划之后，此举令投资者欢欣鼓舞，希望中国科技行业最糟糕的时期已经过去。周四，集团首席执行官张勇在讨论拆分为六个部门的计划时表示，公司的拆分计划将使旗下部门变得更加灵活，并最终自行上市。

Investors hope the plan will help unlock value for the internet behemoth. Alibabas US shares currently trade at 11 times its forward earnings, according to Refinitiv data, below its 5-year average of 20 times as well as those of its rival JD.com and peer Amazon.com.

投资者希望该计划将有助于释放互联网巨头的价值。根据 refinitiv 的数据，阿里巴巴美国股票目前的市盈率是其预期市盈率的 11 倍，低于其 20 倍的 5 年平均水平以及其竞争对手京东和同行亚马逊的市盈率。

With fears of a widespread banking crisis easing, investor attention has switched to Fed vs inflation. Traders will get a glimpse of which way inflation is headed before the week ends, with data on Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Feds favourite gauge of inflation, due on Friday.

随着对普遍存在的银行业危机的担忧有所缓解，投资者的注意力已转向美联储与通胀的关系。交易员将在本周末之前瞥见通货膨胀的走向，个人消费支出数据是美联储最喜欢的通货膨胀指标，将于周五公布。

In corporate news, UBS Group rehired Sergio Ermotti as CEO to steer its massive takeover of neighbouring Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a surprise move that pleased investors.

企业新闻方面，瑞银集团重新聘请 sergio ermotti 担任首席执行官，以指导其对邻近的瑞士银行瑞士信贷的大规模收购，这一出人意料的举动令投资者感到高兴。

Meanwhile, the U.S. banking system‘s top cop said the scope of blame for Silicon Valley Bank’s failure stretches across bank executives, Federal Reserve supervisors and other regulators.

与此同时，美国银行系统的最高警察表示，硅谷银行倒闭的责任范围遍及银行高管、美联储监管机构和其他监管机构。

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

可能影响周四市场的主要发展：

Economic events: Eurozone sentiment indicators, Germany preliminary CPI, U.S. Q4 GDP

经济事件：欧元区情绪指标、德国cpi初值、美国q4 gdp

Speakers: BoE‘s Catherine Mann, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel

演讲者：英国央行的凯瑟琳曼，欧洲央行的伊莎贝尔施纳贝尔

(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

（ankur banerjee 报道；muralikumar anantharaman 编辑）