As hawkish Fed pricing goes away, bullish dollar calls fade

(Reuters) – The collapse of two big U.S. regional banks has forced the U.S. bond markets into a near 180-degree turn from pricing in a more aggressive Federal Reserve and is eroding expectations the greenback could resume a new rally to fresh 20-year highs.

（路透社）——美国两家大型地区性银行的倒闭迫使美国债券市场从定价美联储更激进的做法发生近 180 度的转变，并削弱了美元可能恢复新的反弹至 20 年新高的预期.

Emergency measures by the Fed and the U.S. government on Sunday to guarantee bank deposits have failed to reassure markets after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed.

在硅谷银行和 signature bank 倒闭后，美联储和美国政府周日为保证银行存款采取的紧急措施未能安抚市场。

Since Thursday, the tumble in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, which were at 15-year highs, was the steepest since October 1987, and pulled the dollar down from three-month highs.

自周四以来，美国短期国债收益率跌至 15 年高位，创下 1987 年 10 月以来的最大跌幅，美元从三个月高位回落。

Two-year yields fell as low as 3.939% on Monday, down more than a percentage point from a 15-year high of 5.084% reached last week, while 10-year yields dipped to 3.418%, from more than 4% last week.

两年期国债收益率周一低至 3.939%，较上周触及的 15 年高点 5.084% 下跌逾一个百分点，而 10 年期国债收益率则从上周的逾 4% 跌至 3.418%。

The moves come as investors rush for safe havens and adjust for a less aggressive Fed in the wake of the bank failures. The dollar dipped 0.60% against a basket of currencies on Monday.

这些举措出台之际，投资者急于寻求避风港，并在银行倒闭后为美联储的激进程度进行调整。美元兑一篮子货币周一下跌 0.60%。

“The market is basically saying that the Fed is done here,” said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. “It wouldn‘t surprise me if the market now will just try to continuously fade the Fed and won’t believe any kind of realm of hawkishness that emerges, and its not clear whether or not the Fed will continue to be hawkish.”

“市场基本上是在说美联储已经完蛋了，”纽约道明证券高级外汇策略师 mazen issa 表示。 “如果市场现在只是试图不断淡化美联储，并且不相信出现的任何鹰派领域，我也不会感到惊讶，而且目前尚不清楚美联储是否会继续保持鹰派。”

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets last week when he said that the U.S. central bank might reaccelerate the pace of rate hikes as it battles still-high inflation and benefits from a still strong employment picture. That sent Treasury yields sharply higher and boosted the dollar index.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周表示，美国央行可能会重新加快加息步伐，因为它正在与仍然高企的通胀作斗争，并受益于依然强劲的就业前景，这让市场感到意外。这导致美国国债收益率大幅走高，并提振了美元指数。

But that prospect now appears off the table.

但这种前景现在已不在考虑之列。

Fed funds futures traders now see the Fed as most likely to leave rates unchanged when it meets on March 21-22, or raise rates by 25 basis points, a dramatic change from last week after Powells comments before congressional committees, when a 50 basis points rate increase was viewed as the most likely outcome.

联邦基金期货交易员现在认为，美联储最有可能在 3 月 21 日至 22 日的会议上维持利率不变，或者加息 25 个基点，这与上周鲍威尔在国会委员会发表评论后发生了巨大变化，当时加息 50 个基点加息被视为最有可能的结果。

Some banks, including Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets, have also said they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates this month.

包括高盛和 natwest markets 在内的一些银行也表示，他们不再预计美联储本月会加息。

Traders are also pricing for the Fed to cut rates this year, with the fed funds rate expected to fall to 3.80% in December, from 4.57% now. As of last week, traders had largely given up on the prospect of rate cuts this year.

交易员还预计美联储今年将降息，预计联邦基金利率将从目前的 4.57% 降至 12 月的 3.80%。截至上周，交易员基本放弃了今年降息的前景。

“There are potentially heightened recession risks,” on the back of the financial stability issues, said Jonathan Cohn, head of rates trading strategy at Credit Suisse in New York.

瑞士信贷驻纽约的利率交易策略主管乔纳森科恩表示，在金融稳定问题的背景下，“经济衰退风险可能会加剧”。

While the market may retrace some of Mondays sharp moves, “there are these kind of prevailing questions around the future provision of credit, of bank lending, that have to be answered before markets are going to price as aggressive of a hiking cycle as they previously were,” Cohn said.

虽然市场可能会回撤周一的一些剧烈波动，但“围绕未来的信贷供应、银行贷款存在这些普遍存在的问题，必须在市场定价为像之前那样激进的加息周期之前回答这些问题是，”科恩说。

Fed officials are in a blackout period before the March meeting, which leaves a dearth of guidance on the extent to which the financial stability risks may alter their view on further tightening.

美联储官员在 3 月会议之前处于停电期，因此缺乏关于金融稳定风险可能在多大程度上改变他们对进一步收紧政策的看法的指导。

Even if they repeat their commitment to bringing down inflation, investors may be unlikely to embrace the message to the extent they did only last week.

即使他们重申降低通胀的承诺，投资者也不太可能像上周那样接受这一信息。

“If the market‘s assumption as recently as a week ago was the Fed can and will continue to hike no matter what, that’s no longer, I think, the view, (and) its going to be very difficult for the market to come back to that view,” said Brian Daingerfield, head of F10 FX strategy at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.

“如果市场就在一周前还假设美联储能够而且将继续加息，那么我认为这不再是这种观点，(而且)市场将很难回到这种观点，”康涅狄格州斯坦福德 natwest markets 的 f10 外汇策略主管 brian daingerfield 说。

“From a dollar perspective, thats very important because the resetting of Fed expectations ever higher was a big part of the dollar rally we had seen before these moves,” he added.

“从美元的角度来看，这非常重要，因为将美联储预期重新设定得更高是我们在这些举措之前看到的美元反弹的重要组成部分，”他补充道。

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Alden Bentley and Jonathan Oatis)

（karen brettell 报道；alden bentley 和 jonathan oatis 编辑）