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ECB rate rises will be more gradual than Fed's, says Draghi
Abstract：For this reason, while interest hikes are "inevitable" in the 19-nation currency bloc "the pace of adjustment is bound to be more gradual".
The European Central Bank will inevitably raise interest rates more slowly than the U.S. Federal Reserve given the different economic circumstance in the euro zone, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said on Thursday.
Speaking to reporters during a visit to Kyiv, Draghi, a former ECB president, said the U.S. had full employment and inflation excluding energy and raw material prices was much higher than in the euro zone.
For this reason, while interest hikes are “inevitable” in the 19-nation currency bloc “the pace of adjustment is bound to be more gradual”.
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FED meeting minutes strongly hint at a rate cut in September; US dollar index falls to new low this year!
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the employment growth in the year ending in March by 818,000, an average monthly decrease of about 68,000, the largest downward revision since 2009. The substantial downward revision of employment data re-emphasized the severity and necessity of the U.S. employment problem, paving the way for a rate hike in September. Bearish for the U.S. dollar.
What new signals does the Federal Reserve have? FED Governor Michelle Bowman reiterates the risk of inflation!
Fed Governor Bowman: There are upside risks to inflation, the labor market continues to strengthen, and a cautious attitude will be maintained at the September meeting. Boston Fed President Collins: If the data is as expected, it would be appropriate to start easing policy "soon". Inflationary pressure will slow down the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, which will be bullish for the dollar.
Europe Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
The ECB's consumer expectations survey shows mixed economic signals with slight improvements in unemployment expectations but unchanged growth forecasts. The euro faces pressure from a strong USD, while the GBP shows resilience, contributing to the strength of GBP/USD and the decline of EUR/GBP.
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