BoE to hike interest rate again in February – Reuters poll

Key findings

Inflation will peak next quarter before starting to decline in the third quarter and won't reach the BoE's 2% target until the second quarter of next year, adding pressure on the central bank to act.

Median inflation forecasts for this quarter and next jumped to 5.2% and 5.5% from 4.7% and 4.6% in the previous poll released in December.

Almost 65% of respondents expected a 25-basis-point rate increase, while the proportion expecting a rise to 0.50% by the end of March was more than 75%.

Median forecasts showed the BoE hiking its main interest rate by another 25 basis points in the third quarter - a quarter earlier than predicted last month. The BoE will then wait until early next year before raising it again, to 1.00%, also earlier than previously expected.

Economic growth was expected to have slowed to 0.6% this quarter after expanding by 1.0% at the end of 2021. It will then grow 0.9% next quarter before slowing to 0.7% and 0.6% in the following two quarters.

GDP growth for 2022 was pegged at 4.5%, the median of 66 economists showed, and in 2023 it was put at 2.2%. That follows an expected 7.0% expansion last year.