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Abstract:Next week, on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will have its monetary policy meeting.
Bank of Canada: Looking for a relatively quiet meeting – TD Securities
Next week, on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will have its monetary policy meeting. Analysts at TD Securities, expect a relatively quiet meeting. They consider the BoC will maintain the view that the outlook is evolving as expected and that inflation is transitory.
Key Quotes:
“We look for a relatively quiet BoC meeting, with limited scope for a meaningful change in tone. The BoC will maintain that the outlook is evolving as expected and that inflation strength is largely transitory. We do not expect any change to guidance, as the statement balances rising uncertainty over COVID & supply chain disruptions from BC floods against labour market strength.”
“A quiet BoC meeting shifts CAD drivers to the world at large. In turn, COVID uncertainty, heightened risk aversion, and a relatively poor local growth and mobility backdrop should keep USDCAD hanging around 1.28 for a bit longer. While we see too much pessimism priced into markets, it could a bit of time for things to settle down. Even so, we think the risk pullback will offer attractive entry levels for CAD against the likes of JPY and CHF in early 2022.”
“We expect a neutral BoC meeting, but note that Canada remains cheap to the US. It is important to recognize that we have moved from a divergence narrative with the US to a convergence narrative now; as such we want to maintain our long Canada bias.”
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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Wednesday's major data releases and macroeconomic events are expected to cause volatility to increase after another day of erratic trading in the financial markets. The Spring Budget for the UK will be released, and January Retail Sales figures for January will be made available by Eurostat. ADP Employment Change for February and January JOLTS Job Openings will be discussed later in the session on the US economic docket.
Major currency pairings are still trading in familiar ranges early on Tuesday after the erratic trading on Monday. The US economic docket for the American session will include the factory orders data for January and the ISM Services PMI survey for February. Final updates to the February PMI for the US, Germany, the UK, and the EU will also be released by S&P.