Cycle trading: Dollar delivers bullish surprise

The dollar delivered a bullish surprise on Wednesday and bullish follow through on Thursday.

Prior to Wednesday the dollar had been in a daily downtrend characterized by highs forming below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar delivered a bullish surprise on Wednesday by closing convincingly above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Then the dollar delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by closing convincingly above the 200 day MA. This breaks the patters of lower highs and beings a pattern of higher highs.

Wednesday was only day 16 for the daily cycle. Which is still early enough in the daily cycle for the dollar to continue higher. However, the dollar became rather stretched above the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA over the past two days and may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.

Bullish surprises tend to happen during an intermediate cycle advance. All of this bullish action of the dollar confirms that the late May DCL was also the intermediate cycle low, which places the dollar on week 3 of the new intermediate cycle. In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss what I will need to see to convince me if the dollar has also begun a new 3 year cycle