Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but Remain Rangebound Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices moved higher on Thursday, rising 2%, following a larger than expected draw in natural gas stockpiles. The Energy Information released its inventory report, and despite warmer than normal weather, reserves declined. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal over the next 8-14 days.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rallied on Thursday but is still forming a bear flag pattern which is a pause that eventually refreshes lower. Resistance is seen near the top of a gap in mid-March at 2.58. Supoprt is now seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.54. Additional support is seen near the March lows at 2.42. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term negative momentum is decelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a rising trajectory and poised to generate a crossover buy signal

Inventories Fall More than Expected

Natural gas in storage was 1,746 Bcf as of Friday, March 19, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net decrease of 36 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 10 Bcf draw according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 263 Bcf less than last year at this time and 78 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,824 Bcf. At 1,746 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.