Australian Dollar Eyes RBA Minutes. Euro Hung Up on EU Summit

Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia, EU Summit, Coronavirus – TALKING POINTS

• Australian Dollar likely to focus on Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes publication

• Euro caught in political crossfire as EU officials rigorously debate an EUR750 aid package

• AUD/CAD technical analysis suggests the pair could retreat and retest multi-week uptrend

Wall Street stocks had some pep in their step. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices all closed 0.03, 0.84, and 2.51 percent higher, respectively. All three were given a tailwind after news broke that Oxford University and pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca had a breakthrough on a coronavirus vaccine called AZD1222.

Researchers found it triggered an immune respond to Covid-19 with only minor side effects. AstraZeneca subsequently spiked over 10 percent before retreating and closing just a little over 6.50 percent from the open.

Foreign exchange markets were somewhat mixed. The haven-linked US Dollar and anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc along with the Euro suffered the deepest burns. Higher-beta FX like the Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona on the other hand were sunbathing on green pasture with the British Pound. Sterling rose not so much due to GBP strength per say but rather due to weakness in its counterparts.

The Euro was left out in the cold after European Union policymakers failed to reach a consensus on what is shaping up to be the longest meeting since the 2000 summit in Nice, France. The so-called “Frugal Four” – led by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands and followed by Sweden, Denmark Austria and Finland – have pushed to modify the EUR750 billion aid package.

The new proposal that may be generous enough for big-spending advocates to get behind and watered-down enough for the Frugal Four to swallow reduced the amount of grants to 390 billion and increased the loan amount to 360b. The original was 500b and 250b, respectively. Until a solid agreement is reached, the Euro will likely continue to hover with a cautious upside bias. Read more about why that is here.

Tuesdays Asia-Pacific Trading Session

In addition to the politically-entangled Euro, the Australian Dollar will likely also be in the spotlight. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing their meeting minutes following the interest rate decision on July 7. Officials noted that while the path ahead is uncertain, “conditions have, however, stabilised recently and the downturn has been less severe than earlier expected”.

Policymakers reinforced this notion, saying that the worst of the economic crisis may be behind as leading indicators point to signs of stabilization. Officials reiterated they are“prepared to scale-up its bond purchases” in order to achieve their employment and inflation targets. Unless the RBA significantly deviates from this message – be it more positive or negative – AUD may shrug at the comments.

Australian Dollar Analysis

After bottoming out in March, AUD/CAD has gone on to rise over 14 percent in a relatively short span of time. However, technical cues are hinting that upside momentum may be slowing with RSI showing a negative divergence. Capitulation could shatter a multi-week uptrend and open the door to retesting stubborn support at 0.9293. Follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri for more timely technical updates.