「KOL Analysis•Bola Akinya」The Weekly Focus of Currency and Commodities Market (22 May)

GBP bottom of G-10

The pound has shown extreme weakness due to a No deal Brexit, and a non- desirable interest rate talks after the GBP performed badly in May by losing 4% of its value against the USD and 3% against the EUR.

It sank to a low of $1.2073, making it the third weakest currency, only slightly ahead of the NZD and Norwegian Krome.

Analysis

The British pound broke down during the early part of the trading session on Thursday, slipping through the low of the shooting star during the day on Wednesday, and that suggests that we could go lower shorting the pound.

However, we have had a little bit of a bounce back during the trading session and that shows just how resilient and tough the British pound is trying to be.

Keep in mind that this pair is sensitive to the risk appetite of traders around the world, as the Japanese yen is considered to be a “safety currency based on the current pandemic.”

Furthermore, the British pound of course has to deal with the Brexit situation and all of the noise involving the coronavirus numbers in the United Kingdom.

GOLD FLOODED BY INVESTORS DUE TO COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Gold, a safe haven Commodity, dropped sharply in March due to the Pandemic as can be expected.

However, it rallied swiftly in April, trading above the $1700 mark as a result of concerns on COVID-19 fears from Investors.

The gold futures contract gained 0.37% on Wednesday as it continued to fluctuate after reaching new monthly high of $1,775.80 on Monday. It has retraced almost all of its downward correction from April 14 high of $1,788.80. The market is extending over month-long consolidation, as we can see on the Weekly chart:

The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel alongside French President Emmanuel Macron have agreed on a €500 billion recovery fund for the EU states worst hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Europe‘s response to the economic turmoil brought about by the global coronavirus shutdown is about the EU’s financial unity.

The EUR dropped 3.5% this year to $1.08, close to its lowest level against the USD since May 2017.

According to the European Commission Forecast, the Eurozone may head for the deepest recession in its entire history, with its Economy expected to contract 7.7% this year.

This reflects the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Southern states.

Analysis

Based on the Daily Charts (EUR/USD) the EUR went back and forth on Thursdays trading session, spiking above the 1.10 level as ongoing benefit claims number increases in the US.

The markets are still likely to continue seeing bearish pressure and from the weekly charts below, the major resistance at 1.00013 has been tested and rejected 3 times with a bearish harami in sight.

COVID-19 pandemic and Oil

The impact of the COVID-19 on major oil consuming countries like China. India, saw a huge dip on oil consumption, sinking Oil prices to its lowest in decades is now on a rally following the Chinese re-opening for business.

However, caution must be taken as it is a vast distance from Lockdown to Recovery. China is known for its tourist attractions amongst many others, asides from being the Second largest Oil consuming countries and even though flights and travels, both domestic and international looks to be picking up, it is still roughly half of Last years volumes.

Analysis

Weekly Chart below shows an extremely oversold condition as rally started a little over 2 weeks ago based on the slight ease on lockdown restrictions in China. Breaking above neckline of double bottom. We expect a hit on the $40 mark in the coming weeks ahead.

[About The Author]

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