GBP/USD Will See More Volatile Market Trend

If Britain and the EU fail to make some progress in the two rounds of week-long trade negotiations, scheduled on May 11th and June 1st respectively, it will have some noticeable impact on the pounds fluctuation before mid-2020.

After a month of jittering in March, April has been rather peaceful for the pound. GBP/USD once plunged to a 35-year low of 1.1413 in March, while GBP/EUR also fell to 1.0527, a record low in 11 years. But both pairs have experienced some rally afterwards.

The EU-Britain negotiation regarding new trade measures introduced since January 1st has recently come to a deadlock. June 30th will be the deadline for extending the negotiation, yet the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly emphasized that an extension is unlikely to take place.

Latest statistics from CFTC show that as of the week ending April 21st, speculators at Chicagos International Monetary Market(IMM) are holding net shorts in pound for the first time in the past 12 months. During the last 6 weeks, speculators have been reducing holdings of GBP long positions.

GBP/USD daily pivot points: 1.2434-1.2457

S1: 1.2410 R1: 1.2506

S2: 1.2351 R2: 1.2543