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Abstract:In 2020, economic growth of the Eurozone and the world in general will also depend on how global trade talks turn out, particularly whether negotiations between various global players, including Britain and the European Union, can eliminate uncertainties in international trade.
European Central Bank(ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the Eurozone‘s inflation is estimated to be slowly inching towards the central bank’s target range. Monetary policy and increasing loans may prop up prices in the medium term, and Eurozones economy, supported by easing monetary measures, is estimated to see a 1.1% growth this year.
Germany‘s economy resumed marginal growth after declining for 3 months, while Spain and France both experienced considerable expansion. New jobs have been growing for the first time in 4 months, while business confidence also improved. Britain also had some good news, as the service sector’s index last December has been revised upwards, while new orders have seen the largest increase in 5 months. Inflation is expected reach 1.6% in 2022 as economic expansion accelerates.
In 2020, economic growth of the Eurozone and the world in general will also depend on how global trade talks turn out, particularly whether negotiations between various global players, including Britain and the European Union, can eliminate uncertainties in international trade.
Technically, 1.1147 will be the axis point for EUR/USD in the first half of the year. Based on stabilized Eurozone economic data, weakened US dollar and reduced systematical risks, it‘s likely that the euro will slightly rise to above 1.15. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump’s policies have boosted USD above fair level for at least the past 2 years, but as the influence of these policies eventually declines, USD is also expected to return to a fair level. After the initial impacts of fiscal stimulus eventually faded, US economy growth may not reach its full potential.
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JPY strengthened against the USD, pushing USD/JPY near 145.00, driven by strong inflation data and BoJ rate hike expectations. Japan's strong Q2 GDP growth added support. However, USD gains may be limited by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
Gold prices remain above $2,500, near record highs, as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for confirmation of a potential Fed rate cut in September. The Fed's dovish shift, prioritizing employment over inflation, has weakened the US Dollar, boosting gold. A recent revision showing the US created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported also strengthens the case for a rate cut.
USD/JPY holds near 145.50, recovering from 144.95 lows. The Yen strengthens on strong GDP, boosting rate hike expectations for the Bank of Japan. However, gains may be limited by potential US Fed rate cuts in September.
Gold prices remain near record highs, driven by expectations of a US interest rate cut and a weakening US Dollar. Investors are focusing on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be closely watched for clues on the Fed's stance. Additionally, the release of US manufacturing data (PMIs) is expected to influence gold's direction.