RBNZ Preview: Dovish Forward Guidance to Rattle NZDUSD Rate Rebound

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision

交易新闻：新西兰（RBNZ）的利率决定

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision may fuel the recent rebound in NZDUSD as the central bank is expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 1.00%, but a batch of dovish rhetoric may drag on the New Zealand Dollar as its spurs speculation for lower interest rates.

储备银行储备银行新西兰（RBNZ）的利率决定可能会加剧近期的反弹情绪指数为央行预计将维持官方现金利率（OCR）在1.00％，但一批温和的言辞可能对新西兰元拖动它的马刺猜测降低利率

The RBNZ may move to the sidelines after delivering a 50bp rate cut in August, and the central bank may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for the remainder of the year as the committee pledges to “monitor and assess the impacts of monetary policy, including the transmission through to retail interest rates.”

在RBNZ可以在八月递送50个基点速率切断后移动到一边，和中央银行可能很大程度上赞同等待和观望在今年余下的方法，因为该委员会承诺将“监测和评估货币政策的影响，包括通过零售利率的传输。”

In turn, the RBNZ meeting may spur a bullish reaction in the New Zealand Dollar if Governor Adrian Orr and Co. remove the easing bias, but a dovish forward guidance may rattle the recent rebound in NZDUSD especially as New Zealands Treasury Department identifies the lower bound for the OCR.

继而，RBNZ会议可能会刺激在新西兰元看涨反应如果调速阿德里安奥尔和Co.祛瘀E中的缓和偏压，但稳健向前引导可以在嘎嘎尤其NZDUSD如新西兰财政部近期反弹识别下界为OCR。

Impact that the RBNZ interest rate decision had on NZD/USD during the last meeting

影响那新西兰央行利率决定 的上次会议

August 2019Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision

期间 公布的数据 估算 实际 点子变化（1小时后事件） 点子变化日后事件的（完） AUG2019 2019年8月7日02:00:00 GMT 1.25％ 1.00％ -110 -168 新西兰八月2019Reserve银行（RBNZ）的利率决定

NZD/USD 5-Minute Chart

NZD / USD 5分钟图

Source: Trading View

来源：交易查看

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered at 50bp rate cut in August versus expectations for a 25bp reduction, and the central bank may continue to insulate the economy in 2019 amid the “the risk of a larger or more prolonged slowdown in global economic growth.”

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）递送ED在削减八月与FO预期利率50个基点25个基点减少，和中央银行可能会继续以绝缘经济在2019年之际的“全球经济增长更大或更长时间的减速的风险。”

It seems as though the RBNZ took a preemptive approach to address the downside risks surrounding the region as central bank officials “agreed that the larger initial monetary stimulus would best ensure the Committee continues to meet its inflation and employment objectives.”

这好像新西兰央行采取了先发制人的办法来解决周边地区的央行官员们“一致认为，较大的初始货币刺激政策将最好保证委员会继续履行其通货膨胀和就业的下行风险目标。”

Nevertheless, the RBNZ may continue to push the official cash rate (OCR) to fresh record lows amid the weakening outlook for the Asia/Pacific region.

然而，新西兰央行可继续官方现金率（OCR）推到新鲜纪录低点在一片弱化前景对于亚洲/太平洋地区。

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled lower following the larger-than-expected rate cut, with NZDUSD slipping below the 0.6400 handle to close the day at 0.6377.

在新西兰挤爆下继大于预期速率切，与NZDUSD打滑在0.6400下方把手收了一天在0.6377。

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NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

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Source: Trading View

• Keep in mind, NZDUSD has traded to a fresh 2019-low (0.6255) in September after clearing the May-low (0.6482), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as the oscillator snaps the upward trend from earlier this year.

  请注意，NZDUSD已成交到新鲜2019-低（0.6255）九月清除5 - 低（0.6482），与突出一个类似的动态作为振荡器卡从今年早些时候的上升趋势的相对强度指数（RSI）之后。

• In turn, the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside, with the near-term outlook capped by the failed attempt to break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6400 (61.8% retracement) to 0.6430 (78.6% expansion).

  继而，更广阔的前景仍偏向下行，与由失败的尝试封端的短期前景打破/关闭上述斐波那契重叠围绕0.6400（61.8％回）至0.6430 （78.6％膨胀）。

• Failure to preserve the monthly opening range raises the risk for a further decline in NZDUSD, with the downside hurdle coming in around 0.6180 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6210 (78.6% expansion).

  未能保持每月开口范围会在以NZDUSD进一步下降的风险，与所述下行障碍周围来0.6180（161.8％的膨胀），以0.621 0（78.6％膨胀）。

• However, recent developments in the RSI keeps the door open for a larger rebound in the exchange rate as the oscillator bounces back from oversold territory, with the move above 0.6310 (100% expansion) opening up the 0.6370 (50% retracement) region.

  然而，最近在RSI发展保持门打开汇率作为振荡器反弹出现较大反弹从超卖水平，同举一回OVE 0.6310（100％膨胀）开放0.6370（50％回撤）区。