Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Surges 4%- Can the Rally be Sustained？

• Gold price breakout approaching multi-year uptrend resistance– constructive above 1392

  黄金价格突破逼近多年上行阻力 - 建设性高于1392

Gold prices have now rallied nearly 19% off the yearly lows in the past three months and nearly 4% this week alone with the precious metal poised to mark the highest weekly close since April of 2013. Gold has seen just two down weeks in the past eleven and while the broader focus remains higher, the advance is now reaching a critical multi-year resistance slope- were looking for a reaction up there. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly price chart heading into the close of the month.

过去三年的黄金价格现已从年度低点反弹近19％本周仅有几个月和接近4％的贵金属价格将创下自2013年4月以来的最高单周收盘价。黄金在过去十一周仅下跌两周，而更广泛的焦点仍然更高，现在已经达到了关键多年的阻力斜坡 - 正在寻找反应。这些是XAU / USD每周价格图表中的更新目标和失效水平，直至月底。

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

黄金价格走势图 - XAU / USD每周

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

图表由Michael Boutros编写，技术策略; Tradingview上的黄金

Notes: In my last XAU/USD Price Outlook we noted that, “Gold prices are in breakout mode – the advance is testing near-term up-trend resistance and were looking for a reaction with the focus higher while above 1451.” The advance registered a high at 1510 on the back of a spectacular advance that saw prices post the largest single-week rally / range since mid-June (that instance marked a breach of the yearly opening-range highs). Note that weekly RSI is now approaching the momentum highs registered just before the 2011 record highs.

注意：在我上次的XAU / USD Price Outlook中，我们注意到，“黄金价格处于突破模式 - 预计正在测试短期上行趋势阻力，并且正在寻找一个反应，焦点在1451上方更高。”由于价格出现最大的单周涨势，这一涨幅创下1510点的高点。自6月中旬以来的范围（该事件标志着违反年度开放高点）。请注意，每周RSI目前接近2011年创纪录高位之前的动量高点。

Initial weekly resistance targets stand with the 2015 parallel (red) around ~1515 with more significant confluence region eyed at pitchfork resistance / December 2011 & 2012 lows at 1522/26- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Key support steady at 1451 backed by 1433 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the median-line / 2014 high at 1391.

最初的每周阻力目标位于215左右平行（红色）~1515附近有更明显的汇合区域，在干草叉阻力/ 2011年12月和2012年低点1522 / 26-看到IF达到更大的反应。关键支撑位于1451，受1433支撑，更广泛的看涨无效现在上升至中位数/ 2014年高点1391。

Bottom line: The gold breakout is getting deep with the advance now maturing towards long-term uptrend slope resistance targets. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards trend resistance around 1522/26- a region of interest for possible near-term exhaustion. Ultimately, well be looking for a larger pullback to offer more favorable entries with the broader focus higher while above the median-line.

底线：黄金价格突破正在逐步走向现在已经走向长期上升趋势阻力目标。从交易的角度来看，寻求减少长期暴露/提高保护性止损，在1522/26附近趋势阻力 - 可能的近期疲惫感兴趣的区域。最终，正在寻找更大的回调以提供更有利的条目，更广泛的焦点更高，而高于中线。查看我最新的黄金价格展望，仔细研究近期XAU / USD技术交易水平。

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart

黄金交易员情绪 - XAU / USD价格走势图

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• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +1.53 (60.5% of traders are long) – bearish reading

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• Long positions are 11.1% higher than yesterday and 7.0% higher from last week

  多头头寸比昨天增加11.1％，比上周增加7.0％

• Short positions are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 37.9% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少了0.1％，比上周增加了37.9％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，事实上交易者是净长建议现货G.旧价格可能继续下跌。交易商的净持续时间比昨天和上周还要长当前定位和最近的变化使我们从情绪的角度看待现货黄金看跌逆势交易偏好。