EURUSD Drops as ECB Paves Way for Rate Cut and QE Restart

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

• ECB changes forward guidance towards easing, rate cut warranted in September

  欧洲央行改变向往宽松政策的指引，9月保证降息

• New round of bond purchases will be announced

  将宣布新一轮购买债券

• Tiered rates may be introduced to mitigate negative rate impact on banks

  分层费率可能被引入以减轻对银行的负面影响

EURUSD saw some volatility prior to the announcement as the pair spiked to 1.1149 before dropping back to around 1.1120 as the ECB kept rates unchanged but signalled further monetary stimulus to come in September.

欧元兑美元在宣布之前出现一些波动，因为该货币对飙升至由于欧洲央行维持利率不变，但在9月份进一步实施货币刺激措施后，1.1149回落至1.1120附近。

A key takeaway from this meeting are the changein the Central Banks forward guidance, shifting from keeping rates at current levels to keeping them at current or lower levels until mid-2020, signalling that they are prepared to lower rates in the September meeting, possibly taking the deposit rate 10 bps lower to -0.5%. Analyst views and expectations for this meeting were relatively split as some believed that the outcome would only yield information about further monetary stimulus whilst some believed the bank would take immediate action towards growing risks by cutting rates, with some analysts even predicting a 20-bps cut. This saw the EURUSD spike higher after the announcement but quickly correct lower pushing down past 1.1120 as expected.

本次会议的一个重要内容是中央银行前瞻性指引的变化从保持目前的水平转变为将其保持在目前或更低的水平直到2020年中期，表明他们准备在9月会议上降低利率，可能将存款利率降低10个基点至-0.5％。分析师对此次会议的看法和预期相对分散，因为一些人认为结果只会产生有关进一步货币刺激措施的信息，而有些人认为银行会立即采取行动，通过降息来增加风险，一些分析师甚至预测会下调20个基点。该公告发布后欧元兑美元飙升，但很快就下调了预期的下跌至1.1120之下。

PRICE GRAPH: EURUSD AFTER ECB RATE DECISION (ONE-MINUTE TIME FRAME)

价格图：欧洲央行在欧洲央行决定（一分钟时间框架）后的欧元兑美元

Another key point is that the ECB is considering introducing a tiered margining system to mitigate the impact that negative rates have on banks‘ profitability, meaning that lower rates are intended for longer. They also signalled further asset purchases to come but given that the ECB has purchased 2 trillion euros of bonds since 2015, it is nearing its self-imposed ceiling of not owning more than a third of a country’s debt, which could see them increase the issuer limits to allow for further stimulus.

另一个关键点是欧洲央行正在考虑引入分层保证金制度，以减轻负利率对银行盈利能力的影响，这意味着较低的费率意味着更长的时间。他们还表示将进一步收购资产，但考虑到欧洲央行自2015年以来已经购买了2万亿欧元的债券，它已经接近其不拥有超过三分之一国家债务的自行上限。d看到他们增加发行人限制以允许进一步刺激。

A report released earlier this month by the IMF said that the Eurozone would continue to face unprecedented risks stemming from trade wars, Brexit and Italy, and that the ECB should keep monetary policy accommodative as the19-nation currency bloc will face slowing growth in the coming year.

国际货币基金组织本月早些时候发布的报告称欧元区由于贸易战，英国脱欧和意大利将继续面临前所未有的风险，欧洲央行应该保持货币政策宽松，因为19国货币集团将在未来一年面临增长放缓的情况。

TLTROs: What they are and how the influence the economy

TLTRO：它们是什么以及对经济的影响

Negative rates and TLTROs

负利率和TLTRO

Focus on Draghi‘s Meeting minutes for more insight into the ECB’s monetary policy and forward guidance at 1230 GMT which could see further volatility for the EUR.

关注德拉吉会议纪要有关欧洲央行货币政策和格林威治标准时间1230的远期指引的更深入了解，可能会看到欧元的进一步波动。