Gold Prices Break, Pull Back on ECB; Will Bulls Drive Ahead of FOMC？

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

• Gold prices posed a short-term breakout from an ascending triangle formation this morning; but quickly returned back to trend-line support after the start of the ECBs press conference.

  黄金价格从提升中突然出现短期突破三角形成今天早上;但在欧洲央行新闻发布会开始后，很快就回到了趋势线支持位置。

• Next week brings a heavily-anticipated FOMC rate decision in which the bank is expected to pose their first rate cut in over ten years. But that is likely priced-in at this point, meaning the large focus will be on what the FOMC might have in store for the rest of 2019.

  下周带来备受期待的FOMC利率决定预计银行将在十年内首次降息。但这可能会在这一点上定价，这意味着重点将放在FOMC在2019年剩余时间内可能存在的内容中。

Gold Price Breaks Out, Pulls Back Around ECB

黄金价格突破，回撤欧洲央行

Gold prices caught a bid again this morning to test above the 1430 level. That price has now been tested thrice in the month of July but, to date, buyers haven‘t been able to yet leave it behind. The source of this morning’s strength appears to be emanating from the European Central Bank rate decision where the bank made the initial steps towards softer policy while talking up the potential for future QE. This could provide further motive for continued topside in Gold as the worlds largest Central Bank looks at money printing potential down-the-road to stimulate the European economy.

今天早上黄金价格再次出价以测试高于1430的水平。这个价格现在已经在7月份进行了三次测试，但到目前为止，买家还未能将其抛在脑后。今天上午的力量来源似乎来自欧洲央行的利率决定，该银行在谈到未来量化宽松的可能性时，首先采取了更为温和的政策措施。这可能为黄金持续上行提供进一步的动力，因为全球最大的中央银行正在研究能否在未来的道路上推动货币印刷以刺激欧洲经济。

The big question on Gold prices at the moment is one of timing: With a key FOMC rate decision on the calendar for next week, in which market participants are expecting a very dovish outlay, will Gold bulls be able to control the trend up to fresh highs？ Or, is this another false breakout that will see prices moderate ahead of next weeks highly-expected FOMC rate decision？

关于黄金的重大问题目前的价格是时机之一：在下周的日历上有一个关键的FOMC利率决定，其中市场参与者期待非常温和的支出，黄金多头是否能够控制趋势达到新的高点？或者，这是另一个虚假的突破，在未来几周FOMC利率决定高度预期之前会看到价格温和吗？

From the shorter-term look, the door could remain open for further gains in Gold. As discussed on Monday, support has shown around the 1415 level in Gold which is the 14.4% Fibonacci retracement of the June breakout. Resistance was coming in around 1427, which was a swing-high that posted earlier in July. But after the Monday test of resistance, buyers continued to come-in at higher-lows, leading to the build of a short-term ascending triangle on the chart. That formation will often be approached with the aim of bullish breakouts, looking for the enthusiasm thats brought bulls in at higher-lows to eventually take over for a topside breakout through resistance.

从短期看，门可以保留为黄金的进一步收益而开放。正如周一所讨论的那样，支撑位在黄金的1415水平附近，这是6月突破的14.4％斐波那契回撤位。阻力位于1427年左右，这是7月早些时候公布的涨幅。但经过周一的阻力测试后，买家继续进入更高的低点，导致图表上出现短期上升三角形。这种形态通常会以看涨突破为目标，寻找将多头推向更高点的热情，最终通过抵抗来接管上行突破。

Gold Hourly Price Chart

黄金每小时价格表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

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Given that this current breakout has already begun and chasing here could be a perilous endeavor. The next spot of resistance on the chart shows around prior swing-highs at 1437.70-1439.14, and this could be looked to for target potential. For bullish trend strategies, a hold of support at prior resistance, taken from around that 1427 area, can re-open the door for topside exposure, targeting that potential resistance zone around 1437-1439. This would be an aggressive way of approaching the short-term move, particularly given the two-way volatility that‘s shown around this morning’s ECB rate decision.

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Gold 30-Minute Price Chart

黄金30分钟价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

由James Stanley编制的图表

Taking a further step back, and there could be increased concern about holding large exposure at current levels. The brute-force breakout from June has thus far seen considerable digestion in the month of July. The first half of the month was marked by the build of a symmetrical wedge pattern, which when taken with the prior bullish trend produces a bull pennant formation. As discussed two weeks ago as that formation was building, this can offer an element of bias to an otherwise non-directional symmetrical wedge formation; looking for the prior trend to continue pushing prices higher after a round of digestion.

再向后退一步，然后在那里可能会增加对在当前水平持有大量风险的担忧。从6月份开始的蛮力突破到目前为止在7月份出现了相当大的消化。 Ť该月的前半部分以对称楔形图案的构建为标志，当采用先前的看涨趋势时，会形成一个牛鞭形态。正如两周前所讨论的那样，当地层正在形成时，这可能会对一个非定向对称的楔形成提供偏向的因素;在经过一轮消化之后，寻找先前的趋势继续推高价格。

That breakout took hold with aggression last week on the heels of some comments from NY Fed President John Williams. Gold prices temporarily perched about the 1450 level as USD-weakness was all the rage; but as the NY Fed later walked those comments back, Gold prices moderated back to the same 1415 level of support that had set the prior swing-low, and thus far that support has held through this week. This denotes the bullish potential around this theme for the FOMC rate decision set to take place next Wednesday.

在纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰威廉姆斯的一些评论之后，上周爆发了这次突破。由于美元疲软风靡全球，黄金价格暂时维持在1450附近;但随着纽约联邦储备银行随后回复这些评论，黄金价格回落至设定前期摆动低点的1415支持水平，到目前为止，支撑位一直持续到本周。这表明下周三FOMC利率决定将围绕这一主题的看涨潜力。

Gold Eight-Hour Price Chart

黄金八小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

Gold Prices Longer-Term

黄金价格较长期

So, the for the near-term breakout, it appears too late to chase. Short-term price action is so far away from nearby supports that justifying topside entries right now could be a challenge. So what are Gold bulls lacking exposure to do？

所以，对于短期突破，追逐似乎为时已晚。短期价格行动远离附近的支撑，现在证明上行入场可能是一个挑战。那么黄金多头缺乏什么风险呢？

There are a couple of different ways to handle this and the effectiveness of the approach will likely be determined by just how dovish the FOMC is next week, which is a difficult bet to handicap at the moment.

有几种不同的方法可以解决这个问题，这种方法的有效性可能取决于FOMC的多么温和。下周，这是一个难以置信的障碍。

But – this does highlight potential. Should the Fed come out less dovish than markets are expecting, which likely will not be difficult to do given the huge divergence that remains between expectations from rates markets and the FOMC, and this could prelude a larger pullback from last month‘s breakout before that bigger-picture, longer-term trend is ready to fly past the 1500 marker. For that approach, I’ve been focusing-in on prior resistance levels around 1375 and another around 1357.50. The former price was the 2016 swing high while the latter level was the 2017 high which helped to cauterize resistance in 2018. These key zones of prior resistance have yet to be tested for support; and a pullback around a less-dovish FOMC next week could fit nicely with setting up prior resistance as higher-low support in a burgeoning, longer-term up-trend.

但是 - 这确实凸显了潜力。美联储是否应该比市场预期的那样不那么温和，鉴于利率市场和联邦公开市场委员会的预期之间存在巨大差异，这可能不会很难做到，这可能会导致上个月的回调更大。在更大的图片，更长期的趋势准备好飞越1500标记之前突破。对于这种方法，我一直专注于1375年左右和1357.50附近的先前阻力位。前者的价格是2016年的高位，而后者的价格是2017年的高点，这有助于在2018年烧尽阻力。这些先前阻力的关键区域尚待测试支撑;下周，一个不那么温和的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）周围的回调可以很好地适应先前的阻力位，即在新兴的长期上行趋势中获得高低支撑。

Gold Price Daily Chart

黄金价格每日图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写