Gold Prices May Fall with Stocks, Crude Oil on Soft US GDP Data

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

黄金和原油谈话要点：

• Gold prices fell as markets groaned at slow-moving ECB stimulus expansion

  黄金随着欧洲经济增长缓慢扩张导致市场呻吟，价格下跌

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• Crude oil prices down alongside stocks as traders pine for more policy easing

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• Soft US GDP data may sour risk appetite, hurt gold as USD claims haven bid

  美国国内生产总值数据疲软可能会降低风险偏好，因美元声称无法收购而损害黄金

Gold prices slumped as the ECB appeared to be in less of a hurry to expand monetary stimulus than investors anticipated. That drove bond yields sharply higher and ultimately echoed in a stronger US Dollar, cooling the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets.

黄金价格下跌，因为欧洲央行似乎并不急于扩大货币刺激措施，而不是投资者的预期。这促使债券收益率急剧上升并最终在美元走强中回应，从而降低了无息和反法定资产的吸引力。

Tellingly, the drop in gold tracked parallel to plunging stocks and crude oil prices. Investors seemed clearly unnerved by what they judged as an unwelcome lack of urgency in delivering policy support, signaling that their assessment of global growth prospects is far gloomier than that of central bank officials.

引人注目的是，黄金的下跌跟踪与股票和原油价格暴跌相平行。投资者似乎明显感到不安，他们认为在提供政策支持方面缺乏迫切性，这表明他们对全球增长前景的评估远比中央银行官员更为悲观。

Gold Prices May Fall with Stocks, Crude Oil on Soft US GDP Data

由于美国国内生产总值数据疲软，黄金价格可能因股市下跌而原油价格上涨

This sets the stage for the release of second-quarter US GDP data, where expectations envision the slowest annualized growth rate in three years (at 1.8 percent). Leading PMI data has argued as much for some time and a string of recent disappointments on US news-flow warns the realized result may be softer still.

这为美国第二季度GDP数据的发布奠定了基础三年内年增长率最低（1.8％）。领先的PMI数据已经持续了一段时间，并且近期对美国新闻流量的一系列失望警告说，实现的结果可能会更加疲软。

Markets seem to have run out of room to price in ever-more dovish Fed policy outcomes. Investors were perhaps hoping for a bit of extra help from the ECB, but its tiptoeing appears to have left them wanting. That sets the stage for a straight-forward risk-off outcome if US economic growth looks sluggish.

市场似乎已经用完了在更加温和的美联储政策结果中定价的空间。投资者可能希望得到欧洲央行的一些额外帮助，但其脚尖似乎让他们想要了。如果美国经济增长看起来不景气，这将为直接的避险结果奠定基础。

Gold may fall alongside sentiment-geared assets yet again in this scenario as haven-seeking demand buoys the US Dollar even as a would-be supportive drop in yields is capped by anchored rate cut bets. Cycle-sensitive crude oil prices seem likely to suffer too.

黄金可能会在这种情况下再次与情绪相关的资产一起下跌，因为寻求避险需求浮动美元，即使收益率的支撑性下降受到锚定降息赌注的限制。对周期敏感的原油价格似乎也会受到影响。

Get the latest crude oil and gold forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter!

获取最新的原油和黄金预测帽子将推动第三季度的价格！

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

黄金技术分析

Gold prices pressuring trend line support set from late may after the appearance of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern and negative RSI divergence hinted that a top is forming. A daily close below this barrier – now at 1412.24 – exposes the July 1 low at 1381.91 next. Alternatively, a breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1447.90 targets the 50% level at 1468.29.

黄金价格压力趋势线支撑位于5月末看跌吞没烛台图案和负RSI背离的出现暗示顶部正在形成。每日收盘跌破这一障碍 - 现在收于1412.24--接下来将7月1日的低点暴露于1381.91。或者，突破38.2％斐波纳契扩大至1447.90，目标位于1468.29的50％水平。

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

原油技术分析

Crude oil prices continue to oscillate above support at 54.84. A daily close below this barrier sets the stage for a challenge of the 49.41-50.60 area. Alternatively, a move upward that clears resistance at 58.19 opens the door for a retest of the 60.04-84 zone.

原油价格继续高于支撑位54.84。每日收盘低于此障碍为49.41-50.60区域的挑战奠定了基础。或者，向上移动以清除阻力位58.19打开了重新测试60.04-84区域的大门。